Sport Picks
Notaresco Calcio vs Civitanovese Calcio
Italy
Serie D - Group F 2024/2025 
Match Events
21'
21'
Vesprini N.
69'
69'
Sall I.
84'
84'
Ferri R.
AI Match Summary
This match ends 2-1, with Notaresco Calcio advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
37%
30%
33%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Notaresco Calcio
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
37%
/ Low Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Notaresco Calcio come out ahead of Civitanovese Calcio on wins alone.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
- Notaresco Calcio have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Notaresco Calcio, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Notaresco Calcio Clean Sheet 68%
Civitanovese Calcio Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Notaresco Calcio | Civitanovese Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 37 | 30 |
| Wins | 15 | 7 |
| Draws | 10 | 12 |
| Losses | 12 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1.32 | 0.97 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.08 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.48 | 0.94 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 11, 2025 Serie D - Group F
Notaresco Calcio vs Civitanovese Calcio
2:1
Jan 26, 2025 Serie D - Group F
Notaresco Calcio vs Civitanovese Calcio
1:2
Sep 29, 2024 Serie D - Group F
Civitanovese Calcio vs Notaresco Calcio
1:1
May 7, 2017 Serie D - Group F
Notaresco Calcio vs Civitanovese Calcio
2:0
Dec 18, 2016 Serie D - Group F
Civitanovese Calcio vs Notaresco Calcio
1:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Notaresco Calcio Compare
Top Goalscorer Sall I.
1 Goals Assists Leader Ferri R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.74
Civitanovese Calcio Compare
Top Goalscorer Vesprini N.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Notaresco Calcio 41 / 100
Civitanovese Calcio 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Notaresco Calcio Civitanovese Calcio
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Notaresco Calcio Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Notaresco Calcio scored in 84% of their last 37 games.
Civitanovese Calcio let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.
These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.
Notaresco Calcio has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Notaresco Calcio VS -
1.75 Goals Scored 0
0.88 Goals Conceded 0
88% Over 1.5 0%
63% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Notaresco Calcio
(Home) 04 Oct
Montecchio Gallo
0 : 1 Notaresco Calcio
26 Sept
Notaresco Calcio
1 : 1 Pietralunga
20 Sept
Foligno
1 : 0 Notaresco Calcio
16 Sept
Notaresco Calcio
1 : 0 Santegidiese
12 Sept
Teramo
2 : 2 Notaresco Calcio
Page 1 of 8
26 Sept
Notaresco Calcio
1 : 1 Pietralunga
16 Sept
Notaresco Calcio
1 : 0 Santegidiese
06 Sept
Notaresco Calcio
1 : 2 Ancona
26 Apr
Notaresco Calcio
1 : 2 San Marino Calcio
12 Apr
Notaresco Calcio
1 : 2 Ostiamare
Page 1 of 4
Civitanovese Calcio
(Away) 11 May
Notaresco Calcio
2 : 1 Civitanovese Calcio
04 May
Sambenedettese
1 : 2 Civitanovese Calcio
27 Apr
Civitanovese Calcio
1 : 1 Recanatese
17 Apr
Fermana
0 : 2 Civitanovese Calcio
13 Apr
AS Sora
3 : 1 Civitanovese Calcio
Page 1 of 6
11 May
Notaresco Calcio
2 : 1 Civitanovese Calcio
04 May
Sambenedettese
1 : 2 Civitanovese Calcio
17 Apr
Fermana
0 : 2 Civitanovese Calcio
13 Apr
AS Sora
3 : 1 Civitanovese Calcio
30 Mar
Calcio Chieti
1 : 0 Civitanovese Calcio
Page 1 of 4
Tournament Bracket & Draw
Final
AS Sora 1
Roma City 0
Notaresco Calcio 2
Civitanovese Calcio 1
