Sport Picks
Nottingham vs Aston Villa
Europe
Europa League 2025/2026 City Ground, Nottingham 
Match Events
55'
55'
Sub
Onana A. In: Bogarde L.
Out: Onana A.
71'
71'
Wood Ch.
(Penalty)
75'
75'
Sub
Aina O. In: Abbott Z.
Out: Aina O.
AI Match Summary
This match ends 1-0, with Nottingham advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
23%
30%
47%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Aston Villa
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
47%
/ Medium Confidence
- Aston Villa carry the better recent record into this one.
- Win probability leans Aston Villa's way, sitting at 50%.
- Aston Villa arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Nottingham, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Nottingham Clean Sheet 24%
Aston Villa Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Nottingham | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 29 |
| Wins | 13 | 14 |
| Draws | 8 | 3 |
| Losses | 9 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.43 | 2 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.03 | 1.45 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.31 | 0.94 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 12, 2026 Premier League
Aston Villa vs Nottingham
1:2
May 7, 2026 Europa League
Aston Villa vs Nottingham
4:0
Apr 30, 2026 Europa League
Nottingham vs Aston Villa
1:0
Apr 12, 2026 Premier League
Nottingham vs Aston Villa
1:1
Jan 3, 2026 Premier League
Aston Villa vs Nottingham
3:1
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Nottingham 25 / 100
Aston Villa 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Nottingham Aston Villa
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Aston Villa Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Nottingham scored in 70% of their last 30 outings.
Aston Villa has conceded goals in 79% of their last 29 outings.
Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.
Recent resilience: Nottingham stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Nottingham VS Aston Villa
0.75 Goals Scored 0.88
1 Goals Conceded 1.88
50% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Nottingham
(Home) 19 Sept
Nottingham
0 : 1 Coventry
12 Sept
Aston Villa
1 : 2 Nottingham
05 Sept
Nottingham
0 : 0 Tottenham
29 Aug
Liverpool
2 : 2 Nottingham
25 Aug
Nottingham
0 : 2 Leeds
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Nottingham
0 : 1 Coventry
05 Sept
Nottingham
0 : 0 Tottenham
25 Aug
Nottingham
0 : 2 Leeds
22 Aug
Nottingham
0 : 1 Leeds
16 Aug
Nottingham
2 : 0 Brest
Page 1 of 3
Aston Villa
(Away) 19 Sept
Tottenham
2 : 3 Aston Villa
16 Sept
Coventry
1 : 3 Aston Villa
12 Sept
Aston Villa
1 : 2 Nottingham
08 Sept
Club Brugge
2 : 3 Aston Villa
05 Sept
Hull City
0 : 0 Aston Villa
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Tottenham
2 : 3 Aston Villa
16 Sept
Coventry
1 : 3 Aston Villa
08 Sept
Club Brugge
2 : 3 Aston Villa
05 Sept
Hull City
0 : 0 Aston Villa
23 Aug
Brighton
4 : 0 Aston Villa
Page 1 of 4
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/16-finals
Ludogorets 2
Ferencvaros 3
Braga -
TBD -
Panathinaikos 4
Plzen 3
Betis -
TBD -
Din. Zagreb 4
Genk 6
Freiburg -
TBD -
PAOK 1
Celta Vigo 3
Lyon -
TBD -
Celtic 2
VfB Stuttgart 4
FC Porto -
TBD -
Fenerbahce 2
Nottingham 4
Midtjylland -
TBD -
Brann 0
Bologna 2
AS Roma -
TBD -
Lille 2
Crvena zvezda 1
Aston Villa -
TBD -
1/8-finals
Ferencvaros 2
Braga 4
Panathinaikos 1
Betis 4
Genk 2
Freiburg 5
Celta Vigo 3
Lyon 1
VfB Stuttgart 1
FC Porto 4
Nottingham 3
Midtjylland 2
Bologna 5
AS Roma 4
Lille 0
Aston Villa 3
Quarter-finals
Braga 5
Betis 3
Freiburg 6
Celta Vigo 1
FC Porto 1
Nottingham 2
Bologna 1
Aston Villa 7
Semi-finals
Braga 3
Freiburg 4
Nottingham 1
Aston Villa 4
Final
Freiburg 0
Aston Villa 3
