Sport Picks
Nottingham vs FC Porto
Europe
Europa League 2025/2026 City Ground, Nottingham 
Match Events
8'
8'
Bednarek J.
12'
12'
Gibbs-White M.
Assist: Williams N.
16'
16'
Sub
Wood Ch. In: Igor Jesus
Out: Wood Ch.
AI Match Summary
This match ends 1-0, with Nottingham advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
24%
20%
56%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: FC Porto
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
56%
/ Medium Confidence
- FC Porto carry the better recent record into this one.
- FC Porto are the model's pick here, at 90%.
- FC Porto arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Nottingham, who have won 2 of the last 3 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- History favors Nottingham here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Nottingham Clean Sheet 12%
FC Porto Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Nottingham | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 13 | 21 |
| Draws | 8 | 4 |
| Losses | 9 | 5 |
| Goals Scored | 1.43 | 1.67 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.03 | 0.73 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.69 | 1.75 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 16, 2026 Europa League
Nottingham vs FC Porto
1:0
Apr 9, 2026 Europa League
FC Porto vs Nottingham
1:1
Oct 23, 2025 Europa League
Nottingham vs FC Porto
2:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Nottingham Compare
Top Goalscorer Gibbs-White M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.53
Avg xA / game 0.34
FC Porto Compare
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Nottingham 10 / 100
FC Porto 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Nottingham FC Porto
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick FC Porto Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Nottingham scored in 70% of their last 30 outings.
These sides typically produce 1.67 goals when they meet.
Solid form: Nottingham remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.
FC Porto let in goals in 57% of their last 30 matches.
Scoring Trends
Nottingham VS FC Porto
0.88 Goals Scored 2
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.5
63% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Nottingham
(Home) 19 Sept
Nottingham
0 : 1 Coventry
12 Sept
Aston Villa
1 : 2 Nottingham
05 Sept
Nottingham
0 : 0 Tottenham
29 Aug
Liverpool
2 : 2 Nottingham
25 Aug
Nottingham
0 : 2 Leeds
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19 Sept
Nottingham
0 : 1 Coventry
05 Sept
Nottingham
0 : 0 Tottenham
25 Aug
Nottingham
0 : 2 Leeds
22 Aug
Nottingham
0 : 1 Leeds
16 Aug
Nottingham
2 : 0 Brest
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FC Porto
(Away) 20 Sept
FC Porto
3 : 1 Benfica
12 Sept
Casa Pia
1 : 4 FC Porto
08 Sept
FC Porto
0 : 2 Manchester City
04 Sept
FC Porto
2 : 1 Moreirense
29 Aug
Academico Viseu
0 : 3 FC Porto
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
Casa Pia
1 : 4 FC Porto
29 Aug
Academico Viseu
0 : 3 FC Porto
15 Aug
Rio Ave
0 : 2 FC Porto
22 Jul
Gil Vicente
1 : 0 FC Porto
10 May
AFS
3 : 1 FC Porto
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/16-finals
Ludogorets 2
Ferencvaros 3
Braga -
TBD -
Panathinaikos 4
Plzen 3
Betis -
TBD -
Din. Zagreb 4
Genk 6
Freiburg -
TBD -
PAOK 1
Celta Vigo 3
Lyon -
TBD -
Celtic 2
VfB Stuttgart 4
FC Porto -
TBD -
Fenerbahce 2
Nottingham 4
Midtjylland -
TBD -
Brann 0
Bologna 2
AS Roma -
TBD -
Lille 2
Crvena zvezda 1
Aston Villa -
TBD -
1/8-finals
Ferencvaros 2
Braga 4
Panathinaikos 1
Betis 4
Genk 2
Freiburg 5
Celta Vigo 3
Lyon 1
VfB Stuttgart 1
FC Porto 4
Nottingham 3
Midtjylland 2
Bologna 5
AS Roma 4
Lille 0
Aston Villa 3
Quarter-finals
Braga 5
Betis 3
Freiburg 6
Celta Vigo 1
FC Porto 1
Nottingham 2
Bologna 1
Aston Villa 7
Semi-finals
Braga 3
Freiburg 4
Nottingham 1
Aston Villa 4
Final
Freiburg 0
Aston Villa 3
