Sport Picks
Nottingham vs FC Porto
Europe
Europa League 2025/2026 City Ground, Nottingham 
Match Events
8'
8'
Bednarek J.
12'
12'
Gibbs-White M.
Assist: Williams N.
16'
16'
Sub
Wood Ch. In: Igor Jesus
Out: Wood Ch.
AI Match Summary
This match ends 1-0, with Nottingham advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
60%
22%
18%
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Nottingham
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
82%
/ Very High Confidence
- FC Porto carry the better recent record into this one.
- Nottingham are the model's pick here, at 60%.
- FC Porto arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Nottingham, who have won 2 of the last 3 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- History favors Nottingham here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Nottingham Clean Sheet 68%
FC Porto Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Nottingham | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 29 |
| Wins | 12 | 18 |
| Draws | 8 | 6 |
| Losses | 8 | 5 |
| Goals Scored | 2.13 | 0.88 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.38 | 0.63 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.13 | 0.88 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.38 | 0.63 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 16, 2026 Europa League
Nottingham vs FC Porto
1:0
Apr 9, 2026 Europa League
FC Porto vs Nottingham
1:1
Oct 23, 2025 Europa League
Nottingham vs FC Porto
2:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Nottingham Compare
Top Goalscorer Gibbs-White M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06
FC Porto Compare
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Nottingham 68 / 100
FC Porto 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Nottingham FC Porto
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick NOT Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Nottingham scored in 79% of their last 28 outings.
These sides typically produce 1.67 goals when they meet.
Solid form: Nottingham remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.
FC Porto let in goals in 55% of their last 29 matches.
Scoring Trends
Nottingham VS FC Porto
2.13 Goals Scored 0.88
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.63
88% Over 1.5 38%
63% Over 2.5 25%
63% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Nottingham
(Home) 22 Jul
Nottingham
3 : 0 Blackburn
18 Jul
Notts County
0 : 2 Nottingham
24 May
Nottingham
1 : 1 Bournemouth
17 May
Manchester United
3 : 2 Nottingham
10 May
Nottingham
1 : 1 Newcastle Utd
Page 1 of 6
22 Jul
Nottingham
3 : 0 Blackburn
24 May
Nottingham
1 : 1 Bournemouth
10 May
Nottingham
1 : 1 Newcastle Utd
30 Apr
Nottingham
1 : 0 Aston Villa
19 Apr
Nottingham
4 : 1 Burnley
Page 1 of 3
FC Porto
(Away) 22 Jul
Gil Vicente
1 : 0 FC Porto
16 May
FC Porto
1 : 0 Santa Clara
10 May
AFS
3 : 1 FC Porto
02 May
FC Porto
1 : 0 Alverca
26 Apr
Estrela da Amadora
1 : 2 FC Porto
Page 1 of 6
22 Jul
Gil Vicente
1 : 0 FC Porto
10 May
AFS
3 : 1 FC Porto
26 Apr
Estrela da Amadora
1 : 2 FC Porto
16 Apr
Nottingham
1 : 0 FC Porto
12 Apr
Estoril
1 : 3 FC Porto
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/16-finals
Ludogorets2
Ferencvaros3
Braga-
TBD-
Panathinaikos4
Plzen3
Betis-
TBD-
Din. Zagreb4
Genk6
Freiburg-
TBD-
PAOK1
Celta Vigo3
Lyon-
TBD-
Celtic2
VfB Stuttgart4
FC Porto-
TBD-
Fenerbahce2
Nottingham4
Midtjylland-
TBD-
Brann0
Bologna2
AS Roma-
TBD-
Lille2
Crvena zvezda1
Aston Villa-
TBD-
1/8-finals
Ferencvaros2
Braga4
Panathinaikos1
Betis4
Genk2
Freiburg5
Celta Vigo3
Lyon1
VfB Stuttgart1
FC Porto4
Nottingham3
Midtjylland2
Bologna5
AS Roma4
Lille0
Aston Villa3
Quarter-finals
Braga5
Betis3
Freiburg6
Celta Vigo1
FC Porto1
Nottingham2
Bologna1
Aston Villa7
Semi-finals
Braga3
Freiburg4
Nottingham1
Aston Villa4
Final
Freiburg0
Aston Villa3