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Nottingham vs Leeds - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

England England

Premier League City Ground, Nottingham
Our Tip

Match Events

18'
Aina O.
25'
Wilson H.
32'
Calvert-Lewin D.

AI Match Summary

Leeds in this Premier League matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Leeds.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Nottingham
35%
Draws
35%
Leeds
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Leeds have won more games recently than Nottingham.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Leeds have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 36%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Nottingham Clean Sheet 16%
Leeds Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nottingham Leeds
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 13 14
Draws 8 8
Losses 8 7
Goals Scored 1.48 1.62
Goals Conceded 1.03 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 25, 2026 EFL Cup
Nottingham vs Leeds
0:2
Aug 22, 2026 Premier League
Nottingham vs Leeds
0:1
Feb 6, 2026 Premier League
Leeds vs Nottingham
3:1
Nov 9, 2025 Premier League
Nottingham vs Leeds
3:1
Jul 27, 2023 Club Friendly
Nottingham vs Leeds
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nottingham Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Leeds Compare

Top Goalscorer Stach A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nottingham 31 / 100
Leeds 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nottingham Leeds

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Nottingham scored in 72% of their last 29 outings.

Defensive concern: Leeds conceded in 62% of 29 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Nottingham went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Nottingham VS Leeds
0.75 Goals Scored 1.88
1 Goals Conceded 1.25
50% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Nottingham

(Home)
19 Sept
Nottingham
0 : 1
Coventry
12 Sept
Aston Villa
1 : 2
Nottingham
05 Sept
Nottingham
0 : 0
Tottenham
29 Aug
Liverpool
2 : 2
Nottingham
25 Aug
Nottingham
0 : 2
Leeds
Page 1 of 6

Leeds

(Away)
20 Sept
Leeds
0 : 0
Crystal Palace
14 Sept
Leeds
4 : 1
Newcastle Utd
09 Sept
Chelsea
6 : 3
Leeds
05 Sept
Brighton
1 : 1
Leeds
30 Aug
Leeds
1 : 1
Brentford
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Manchester City 5 5 0 0 13:5 15
2 Arsenal 5 4 0 1 8:4 12
3 Brighton 5 3 1 1 16:5 10
4 Brentford 5 2 3 0 10:4 9
5 Leeds 5 2 3 0 7:3 9
6 Liverpool 5 2 3 0 7:4 9
7 Everton 5 2 3 0 6:3 9
8 Hull City 5 2 2 1 6:4 8
9 Newcastle Utd 5 2 2 1 9:9 8
10 Chelsea 5 2 1 2 10:12 7
11 Ipswich 5 2 0 3 7:11 6
12 Manchester United 5 1 2 2 8:8 5
13 Nottingham 5 1 2 2 4:5 5
14 Sunderland 5 1 1 3 6:10 4
15 Crystal Palace 5 1 1 3 6:11 4
16 Aston Villa 5 1 1 3 4:9 4
17 Bournemouth 5 0 3 2 6:8 3
18 Coventry 5 1 0 4 1:10 3
19 Fulham 5 0 2 3 5:8 2
20 Tottenham 5 0 2 3 2:8 2
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Relegation - Championship 2027/2028 (Main)