Sport Picks

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Nottingham vs Leeds

England England

Premier League City Ground, Nottingham
Our Tip

Match Events

18'
Aina O.
25'
Wilson H.
32'
Calvert-Lewin D.

AI Match Summary

Leeds in this Premier League matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Leeds.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Nottingham
15%
Draws
57%
Leeds
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Leeds

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Leeds average 1.61 goals a game right now, well clear of Nottingham's 1.58.
  • Model gives Leeds a 57% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Leeds have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Nottingham Clean Sheet 16%
Leeds Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nottingham Leeds
Matches Played 31 28
Wins 14 14
Draws 8 7
Losses 9 7
Goals Scored 1.58 1.61
Goals Conceded 1.06 1.11
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 22, 2026 Premier League
Nottingham vs Leeds
0:1
Feb 6, 2026 Premier League
Leeds vs Nottingham
3:1
Nov 9, 2025 Premier League
Nottingham vs Leeds
3:1
Jul 27, 2023 Club Friendly
Nottingham vs Leeds
0:2
Apr 4, 2023 Premier League
Leeds vs Nottingham
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nottingham Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Leeds Compare

Top Goalscorer Stach A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nottingham 28 / 100
Leeds 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nottingham Leeds

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Leeds Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Nottingham scored in 81% of their last 31 outings.

Defensive concern: Leeds conceded in 68% of 28 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Nottingham went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Nottingham VS Leeds
1.25 Goals Scored 1.75
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Nottingham

(Home)
16 Aug
Nottingham
2 : 0
Brest
12 Aug
Nottingham
2 : 1
Bayer Leverkusen
08 Aug
Barcelona
1 : 0
Nottingham
08 Aug
Udinese
1 : 0
Nottingham
31 Jul
Sporting CP
4 : 1
Nottingham
Page 1 of 7

Leeds

(Away)
15 Aug
Leeds
4 : 0
Augsburg
12 Aug
Manchester United
2 : 1
Leeds
08 Aug
Leeds
2 : 0
RB Leipzig
02 Aug
Liverpool
2 : 4
Leeds
30 Jul
Sunderland
0 : 1
Leeds
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Arsenal 1 1 0 0 3:0 3
2 Aston Villa 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Chelsea 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Everton 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
5 Fulham 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
6 Liverpool 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
7 Manchester City 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
8 Manchester United 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
9 Newcastle Utd 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
10 Sunderland 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
11 Tottenham 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
12 Crystal Palace 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
13 Hull City 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
14 Ipswich 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
15 Bournemouth 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
16 Brighton 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
17 Leeds 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
18 Nottingham 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
19 Brentford 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
20 Coventry 1 0 0 1 0:3 0
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Relegation - Championship 2027/2028 (Main)