Sport Picks

England

EFL Trophy 2025/2026 Meadow Lane, Nottingham

Notts County

2 - 1

Barnsley

Our Tip

Match Events

Bland J.

Luker J.

Assist: Kouhyar Q.

45'

Norburn O.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

This match ends 2-1, with Notts County advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%

Notts County

30%

Draws

42%

Barnsley

Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Barnsley

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

28% / Low Confidence

Notts County carry the better recent record into this one.
Model gives Notts County a 28% chance of winning this.
Notts County have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
Historical meetings favor Notts County, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 19%

Over 4.5 Goals 9%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%

Notts County Clean Sheet 16%

Barnsley Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Notts County	Barnsley
Matches Played	30	28
Wins	11	10
Draws	7	8
Losses	12	10
Goals Scored	1.5	1.25
Goals Conceded	1.27	1.39
Expected Goals (xG)	0.94	1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 30, 2025 EFL Trophy

Notts County vs Barnsley

2:1

Nov 10, 2018 FA Cup

Barnsley vs Notts County

4:0

Apr 14, 2015 League One

Notts County vs Barnsley

1:1

Oct 21, 2014 League One

Barnsley vs Notts County

2:3

Jan 31, 2004 League One

Notts County vs Barnsley

1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Notts County Compare

Top Goalscorer Luker J.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Hall T.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.72

Avg xA / game 0.47

Barnsley Compare

Top Goalscorer Keillor-Dunn D.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.31

Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Notts County 57 / 100

Barnsley 19 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Notts County Barnsley

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Notts County Win (1)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes

Correct Score 2:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.20 goals per match.

Notts County's goal record stands at 70% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Barnsley's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 28 matches.

Solid form: Notts County remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Notts County VS Barnsley

1 Goals Scored 1.75

1.13 Goals Conceded 0.88

75% Over 1.5 75%

38% Over 2.5 63%

13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Notts County

(Home)

12 Sept

Notts County

0 : 1

Bradford City

05 Sept

Huddersfield

1 : 1

Notts County

01 Sept

Doncaster

1 : 1

Notts County

29 Aug

Notts County

2 : 1

Burton

22 Aug

Luton

2 : 2

Notts County

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Barnsley

(Away)

12 Sept

Plymouth

3 : 0

Barnsley

05 Sept

Barnsley

1 : 5

Stevenage

02 Sept

Barnsley

2 : 1

Blackpool

29 Aug

Leyton Orient

1 : 3

Barnsley

25 Aug

Barnsley

3 : 2

Crewe

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