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Notts County vs Chesterfield Prediction & H2H Stats

England England

League Two 2025/2026 Meadow Lane, Nottingham
Our Tip

Match Events

42'
Sub
Stirk R. In: Fleck J.
Out: Stirk R.
59'
McFadzean K.
63'
Sub
Donacien J. In: Curtis S.
Out: Donacien J.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 0-0. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

24%
Notts County
20%
Draws
56%
Chesterfield
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Chesterfield

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

56% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Chesterfield come out ahead of Notts County on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Chesterfield's way, sitting at 70%.
  • Chesterfield arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Chesterfield, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Notts County Clean Sheet 16%
Chesterfield Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Notts County Chesterfield
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 11 14
Draws 7 7
Losses 11 8
Goals Scored 1.45 1.52
Goals Conceded 1.31 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 15, 2026 League Two
Notts County vs Chesterfield
0:0
May 10, 2026 League Two
Chesterfield vs Notts County
0:1
Mar 14, 2026 League Two
Notts County vs Chesterfield
2:3
Dec 26, 2025 League Two
Chesterfield vs Notts County
2:0
Mar 15, 2025 League Two
Notts County vs Chesterfield
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Notts County 15 / 100
Chesterfield 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Notts County Chesterfield

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Chesterfield Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Notts County scored in 72% of their last 29 games.

Chesterfield's defensive record shows goals conceded in 69% of 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Notts County stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Notts County VS Chesterfield
0.75 Goals Scored 2.13
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Notts County

(Home)
22 Sept
Notts County
2 : 1
Grimsby
19 Sept
Reading
2 : 0
Notts County
12 Sept
Notts County
0 : 1
Bradford City
05 Sept
Huddersfield
1 : 1
Notts County
01 Sept
Doncaster
1 : 1
Notts County
Page 1 of 6

Chesterfield

(Away)
03 Oct
Chesterfield
4 : 2
Tranmere
26 Sept
Cheltenham
2 : 1
Chesterfield
22 Sept
Chesterfield
2 : 1
Port Vale
19 Sept
Chesterfield
2 : 0
York City
15 Sept
Chesterfield
5 : 3
Manchester City U21
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Notts County 1
Chesterfield 0
Salford 4
Grimsby 3
Final
Notts County 3
Salford 0