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Nouadhibou vs Police

Mauritania Mauritania

Ligue 1
Our Tip

Match Events

35' Event
Dembele K.
45' Event
Ba I.
85' Event
Hattab C.

AI Match Summary

The Ligue 1 game between Nouadhibou and Police finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Nouadhibou.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

62%
Nouadhibou
30%
Draws
8%
Police
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Nouadhibou

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

62% / High Confidence
  • Nouadhibou carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 62% — that's where the model lands on Nouadhibou taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Nouadhibou have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Nouadhibou Clean Sheet 68%
Police Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nouadhibou Police
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 17 5
Draws 10 11
Losses 3 14
Goals Scored 1.7 0.97
Goals Conceded 0.63 1.27
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Ligue 1
Nouadhibou vs Police
4:1
Dec 27, 2025 Ligue 1
Police vs Nouadhibou
1:1
Feb 27, 2023 Ligue 1
Nouadhibou vs Police
3:0
Oct 23, 2022 Ligue 1
Police vs Nouadhibou
0:1
May 20, 2022 Ligue 1
Nouadhibou vs Police
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nouadhibou Compare

Top Goalscorer Dembele K.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Hattab C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Police Compare

Top Goalscorer Ba I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nouadhibou 95 / 100
Police 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nouadhibou Police

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Nouadhibou Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nouadhibou found the back of the net in 80% of recent matches (30 games).

Defensive concern: Police conceded in 80% of 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Nouadhibou has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Nouadhibou VS Police
2.25 Goals Scored 0.5
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 50%
75% Over 2.5 38%
63% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Nouadhibou

(Home)
13 Sept
Nouadhibou
0 : 0
Vipers
05 Sept
Vipers
1 : 1
Nouadhibou
23 May
Nouadhibou
1 : 0
Inter Nouakchott
17 May
Nouakchott King's
3 : 2
Nouadhibou
10 May
Nouadhibou
4 : 1
Police
Page 1 of 6

Police

(Away)
25 May
Gendrim
2 : 1
Police
20 May
Police
0 : 1
Kaedi
10 May
Nouadhibou
4 : 1
Police
03 May
Police
0 : 1
Chemal
12 Apr
Nouakchott Academy
0 : 0
Police
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Nouadhibou 26 17 7 2 49:15 58
2 Nzeidane 26 13 7 6 42:35 46
3 Douane 26 12 9 5 40:29 45
4 Pompiers 26 11 11 4 29:22 44
5 Nouakchott Academy 26 10 9 7 32:22 39
6 Gendrim 26 9 10 7 26:29 37
7 Chemal 26 10 6 10 34:35 36
8 Nouakchott King's 26 8 10 8 37:34 34
9 SNIM 26 7 12 7 29:28 33
10 Tevragh-Zeina 26 7 11 8 34:33 32
11 Police 26 5 11 10 28:31 26
12 Kaedi 26 5 8 13 21:37 23
13 Ksar 26 4 5 17 23:48 17
14 Inter Nouakchott 26 3 6 17 24:50 15
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)