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Nova Conquista vs Capital FC

Brazil Brazil

Campeonato Tocantinense 2021
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AI Match Summary

The Campeonato Tocantinense 2021 game between Nova Conquista and Capital FC finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Nova Conquista.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Nova Conquista
44%
Draws
20%
Capital FC
Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Capital FC carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 44% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Campeonato Tocantinense 2021 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 3 times recently and Nova Conquista have taken 2 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Nova Conquista Clean Sheet 20%
Capital FC Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nova Conquista Capital FC
Matches Played 23 33
Wins 5 10
Draws 9 5
Losses 9 18
Goals Scored 0 1
Goals Conceded 0 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 2, 2022 Tocantinense
Nova Conquista vs Capital FC
0:1
Feb 20, 2021 Tocantinense
Nova Conquista vs Capital FC
2:0
Feb 15, 2020 Tocantinense
Capital FC vs Nova Conquista
0:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nova Conquista 36 / 100
Capital FC 21 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nova Conquista Capital FC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CAP Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nova Conquista scored in 70% of their last 23 games.

Capital FC's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 33 matches.

Capital FC's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

H2H data points to 1.33 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

- VS Capital FC
0 Goals Scored 1
0 Goals Conceded 0.63
0% Over 1.5 25%
0% Over 2.5 13%
0% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Interporto760116:518
2Tocantinopolis741215:513
3Palmas741218:1013
4Araguacema741214:1313
5Nova Conquista723210:109
6Tocantins61238:135
7Capital FC70343:103
8Gurupi60154:221