Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Nova Conquista vs Tocantinopolis

Brazil Brazil

Campeonato Tocantinense 2022
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Tocantinopolis in this Campeonato Tocantinense 2022 matchup, with the score ending 2-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Tocantinopolis.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

21%
Nova Conquista
15%
Draws
64%
Tocantinopolis
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Tocantinopolis

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Nova Conquista haven't matched Tocantinopolis's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Tocantinopolis a 64% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Tocantinopolis have won 3 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Nova Conquista Clean Sheet 20%
Tocantinopolis Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nova Conquista Tocantinopolis
Matches Played 23 50
Wins 5 27
Draws 9 13
Losses 9 10
Goals Scored 1.09 1.92
Goals Conceded 1.52 0.98
Expected Goals (xG) 1.23 1.18
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 6, 2022 Tocantinense
Nova Conquista vs Tocantinopolis
2:3
Mar 6, 2021 Tocantinense
Nova Conquista vs Tocantinopolis
0:3
Feb 22, 2020 Tocantinense
Nova Conquista vs Tocantinopolis
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nova Conquista 12 / 100
Tocantinopolis 74 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nova Conquista Tocantinopolis

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tocantinopolis Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.67 goals when they meet.

Nova Conquista scored in 70% of their last 23 games.

Tocantinopolis let in goals in 62% of their last 50 matches.

Recent resilience: Nova Conquista stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Tocantinopolis
0 Goals Scored 1.25
0 Goals Conceded 1.25
0% Over 1.5 88%
0% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Nova Conquista

(Home)
12 Mar
Araguacema
3 : 1
Nova Conquista
06 Mar
Nova Conquista
2 : 3
Tocantinopolis
02 Mar
Nova Conquista
0 : 1
Capital FC
26 Feb
Tocantins
0 : 2
Nova Conquista
19 Feb
Interporto
3 : 0
Nova Conquista
Page 1 of 5

Tocantinopolis

(Away)
06 Jun
Tocantinopolis
7 : 1
Oratorio
30 May
Aguia De Maraba
3 : 1
Tocantinopolis
23 May
Trem
4 : 1
Tocantinopolis
16 May
Tocantinopolis
2 : 0
Imperatriz
10 May
Tuna Luso
2 : 3
Tocantinopolis
Page 1 of 10

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tocantinopolis 9 7 1 1 28:8 22
2 Capital FC 9 6 2 1 16:6 20
3 Interporto 9 5 4 0 16:5 19
4 Uniao Carmolandense 9 5 3 1 11:8 18
5 Bela Vista-TO 9 3 3 3 12:10 12
6 Palmas 9 2 3 4 16:11 9
7 Nova Conquista 9 2 3 4 11:14 9
8 Araguacema 9 2 2 5 12:14 8
9 Gurupi 9 1 2 6 8:17 5
10 Tocantins 9 0 1 8 4:41 1
Promotion - Campeonato Tocantinense 2022 (Play Offs)