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Nova Conquista vs Tocantins

Brazil Brazil

Campeonato Tocantinense 2021
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Campeonato Tocantinense 2021 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

64%
Nova Conquista
15%
Draws
21%
Tocantins
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Nova Conquista

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Tocantins have won more games recently than Nova Conquista.
  • Win probability leans Nova Conquista's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Campeonato Tocantinense 2021 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
Nova Conquista Clean Sheet 20%
Tocantins Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nova Conquista Tocantins
Matches Played 23 35
Wins 5 7
Draws 9 3
Losses 9 25
Goals Scored 1.09 0.69
Goals Conceded 1.52 2.71
Expected Goals (xG) 1.73 0.99
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 26, 2022 Tocantinense
Tocantins vs Nova Conquista
0:2
Mar 13, 2021 Tocantinense
Nova Conquista vs Tocantins
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nova Conquista 85 / 100
Tocantins 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nova Conquista Tocantins

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Nova Conquista Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tocantins let in goals in 86% of their last 35 matches.

Nova Conquista found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (23 games).

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Away concern: Tocantins has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

- VS Tocantins
0 Goals Scored 0.88
0 Goals Conceded 2.25
0% Over 1.5 88%
0% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Nova Conquista

(Home)
12 Mar
Araguacema
3 : 1
Nova Conquista
06 Mar
Nova Conquista
2 : 3
Tocantinopolis
02 Mar
Nova Conquista
0 : 1
Capital FC
26 Feb
Tocantins
0 : 2
Nova Conquista
19 Feb
Interporto
3 : 0
Nova Conquista
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Tocantins

(Away)
01 Nov
Guarai SC
3 : 0
Tocantins
25 Oct
Tocantins
0 : 3
Araguaia (TO)
11 Oct
Central Tocantinense
3 : 0
Tocantins
04 Oct
Tocantins
0 : 3
Paraiso EC
15 Mar
Tocantins
1 : 1
Gurupi
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Interporto 7 6 0 1 16:5 18
2 Tocantinopolis 7 4 1 2 15:5 13
3 Palmas 7 4 1 2 18:10 13
4 Araguacema 7 4 1 2 14:13 13
5 Nova Conquista 7 2 3 2 10:10 9
6 Tocantins 6 1 2 3 8:13 5
7 Capital FC 7 0 3 4 3:10 3
8 Gurupi 6 0 1 5 4:22 1
Promotion - Campeonato Tocantinense 2021 (Play Offs)