Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Nova Iguacu vs Bangu

Brazil Brazil

Carioca Estadio Janio Moraes, Rio de Janeiro
Our Tip

Match Events

15' Event
Vini Charopem
Assist: Xandinho
18'
Gilberto
30'
Garrinsha

AI Match Summary

Bangu in this Carioca matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Bangu.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Nova Iguacu
35%
Draws
25%
Bangu
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Nova Iguacu

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Bangu lately — more wins on the board than Nova Iguacu.
  • Nova Iguacu are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Carioca form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 13%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Nova Iguacu Clean Sheet 68%
Bangu Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nova Iguacu Bangu
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 9 12
Draws 10 9
Losses 10 7
Goals Scored 1 1
Goals Conceded 1.07 0.86
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 30, 2026 Carioca
Nova Iguacu vs Bangu
1:2
Jan 30, 2025 Carioca
Nova Iguacu vs Bangu
1:1
Jan 24, 2024 Carioca
Bangu vs Nova Iguacu
2:3
Jan 29, 2023 Carioca
Nova Iguacu vs Bangu
1:0
Feb 20, 2022 Carioca
Nova Iguacu vs Bangu
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nova Iguacu Compare

Top Goalscorer Vini Charopem
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Bangu Compare

Top Goalscorer Patryck
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nova Iguacu 95 / 100
Bangu 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nova Iguacu Bangu

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Nova Iguacu Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nova Iguacu scored in 72% of their last 29 games.

Bangu let in goals in 61% of their last 28 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.

Nova Iguacu has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Nova Iguacu VS Bangu
0.63 Goals Scored 0.5
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.5
38% Over 1.5 100%
13% Over 2.5 0%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Nova Iguacu

(Home)
19 Sept
Nova Iguacu
1 : 1
Boavista
02 Sept
Sampaio Correa FE
2 : 1
Nova Iguacu
26 Aug
Nova Iguacu
2 : 0
Sampaio Correa FE
12 Aug
Nova Iguacu
0 : 0
Olaria
05 Aug
Olaria
0 : 1
Nova Iguacu
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Bangu

(Away)
22 Jul
Bangu
1 : 1
Olaria
15 Jul
Olaria
2 : 0
Bangu
07 Mar
Botafogo RJ
3 : 1
Bangu
27 Feb
Volta Redonda
1 : 1
Bangu
20 Feb
Bangu
1 : 0
Volta Redonda
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Fluminense 6 5 0 1 9:5 15
2 Vasco 6 3 2 1 9:3 11
3 Volta Redonda 6 3 2 1 9:5 11
4 Bangu 6 3 1 2 7:7 10
5 Portuguesa RJ 6 2 1 3 6:7 7
6 Sampaio Correa FE 6 2 1 3 7:14 7
Promotion - Carioca (Taca Guanabara - Play Offs)
Relegation - Carioca (Relegation Group)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Botafogo RJ 6 3 0 3 6:5 9
2 Madureira 6 2 2 2 5:6 8
3 Boavista 6 2 2 2 6:8 8
4 Flamengo RJ 6 2 1 3 11:9 7
5 Nova Iguacu 6 1 2 3 8:9 5
6 Marica 6 1 0 5 5:10 3
Promotion - Carioca (Taca Guanabara - Play Offs)
Relegation - Carioca (Relegation Group)