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Nova Lavras vs Santarritense - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Mineiro 3
Nova Lavras Logo

Nova Lavras

Sat, Oct 10, 2026
VS
07:00 PM
Santarritense Logo

Santarritense

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Nova Lavras host Santarritense in the Mineiro 3. This has Nova Lavras written all over it on paper. Nova Lavras have averaged 2 scored and 1 conceded recently, against Santarritense's 0.91 scored and 1.45 conceded. These two haven't met recently, so form does most of the talking. xG projections (0.56 - 0.44) back Nova Lavras to edge this. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Nova Lavras
25%
Draws
35%
Santarritense
Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: Nova Lavras

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Nova Lavras haven't matched Santarritense's recent run of results.
  • 40% — that's where the model lands on Nova Lavras taking it.
  • Regular Mineiro 3 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 59.4%
Nova Lavras Clean Sheet 20%
Santarritense Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nova Lavras Santarritense
Matches Played 2 22
Wins 1 8
Draws 0 7
Losses 1 7
Goals Scored 2 0.91
Goals Conceded 1 1.45
Expected Goals (xG) 0.56 0.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nova Lavras 85 / 100
Santarritense 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nova Lavras Santarritense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Nova Lavras Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Nova Lavras scored in 100% of their last 2 outings.

Difficult form: Santarritense registered 4 defeats in their last 5 games.

Defensive concern: Santarritense conceded in 45% of 22 recent games.

Recent resilience: Nova Lavras stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Nova Lavras VS Santarritense
1 Goals Scored 0.38
0.5 Goals Conceded 0.13
50% Over 1.5 13%
50% Over 2.5 0%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Nova Lavras

(Home)
26 Sept
Nova Lavras
3 : 0
Novo Esporte
19 Sept
Venda Nova FC
2 : 1
Nova Lavras

Santarritense

(Away)
02 Oct
Inter de Minas
7 : 1
Santarritense
27 Sept
Santarritense
0 : 8
Venda Nova FC
21 Sept
Nacional de Muriae
3 : 0
Santarritense
29 Sept
Novo Esporte
4 : 0
Santarritense
25 Sept
Santarritense
2 : 1
Novo Esporte
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League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Nacional de Muriae 3 3 0 0 6:1 9
2 Venda Nova FC 3 2 1 0 10:1 7
3 Novo Esporte 3 1 1 1 2:4 4
4 Inter de Minas 3 1 0 2 8:4 3
5 Nova Lavras 3 1 0 2 5:4 3
6 Santarritense 3 0 0 3 1:18 0
Promotion - Mineiro 3 (Final Group)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Paracatu 3 3 0 0 10:1 9
2 Betim FC 2 3 3 0 0 5:0 9
3 Sao Joao del Rei 3 1 0 2 2:2 3
4 Funorte EC 3 1 0 2 1:6 3
5 Araxa 3 1 0 2 4:4 3
6 Siderurgica 3 0 0 3 0:9 0
Promotion - Mineiro 3 (Final Group)