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Nova Mutum EC vs Dom Bosco

Brazil Brazil

Matogrossense 2023
Our Tip

Match Events

28' Event
Felipinho
36' Event
Abner
68' Event
Lorran

AI Match Summary

The Matogrossense 2023 game between Nova Mutum EC and Dom Bosco finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Nova Mutum EC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Nova Mutum EC
15%
Draws
34%
Dom Bosco
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Nova Mutum EC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Nova Mutum EC carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Nova Mutum EC Clean Sheet 68%
Dom Bosco Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nova Mutum EC Dom Bosco
Matches Played 35 32
Wins 16 8
Draws 8 8
Losses 11 16
Goals Scored 1.31 0.88
Goals Conceded 1.37 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 2.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 24, 2024 Matogrossense
Dom Bosco vs Nova Mutum EC
1:1
Feb 26, 2023 Matogrossense
Nova Mutum EC vs Dom Bosco
3:0
Feb 10, 2022 Matogrossense
Dom Bosco vs Nova Mutum EC
1:1
Apr 14, 2021 Matogrossense
Dom Bosco vs Nova Mutum EC
0:1
Feb 8, 2020 Matogrossense
Dom Bosco vs Nova Mutum EC
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nova Mutum EC Compare

Top Goalscorer Felipinho
1 Goals
Assists Leader Abner
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Dom Bosco Compare

Avg xG / game 1.99
Avg xA / game 1.22

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nova Mutum EC 41 / 100
Dom Bosco 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nova Mutum EC Dom Bosco

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Nova Mutum EC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nova Mutum EC found the back of the net in 80% of recent matches (35 games).

Dom Bosco let in goals in 81% of their last 32 matches.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Nova Mutum EC stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Nova Mutum EC VS Dom Bosco
0.88 Goals Scored 1.75
2.63 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 100%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Nova Mutum EC

(Home)
11 Feb
Operario VG
3 : 2
Nova Mutum EC
08 Feb
Nova Mutum EC
2 : 1
Mixto
05 Feb
Várzea Grande EC
1 : 3
Nova Mutum EC
31 Jan
Cuiaba
2 : 1
Nova Mutum EC
28 Jan
Nova Mutum EC
3 : 2
Chapada
Page 1 of 7

Dom Bosco

(Away)
05 Jul
Dom Bosco
3 : 0
Uirapuru
28 Jun
Acao
1 : 2
Dom Bosco
19 Jun
Dom Bosco
1 : 2
Cacerense
16 Jun
Várzea Grande EC
2 : 1
Dom Bosco
24 Feb
Luverdense
4 : 1
Dom Bosco
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cuiaba 9 9 0 0 26:4 27
2 Uniao Rondonopolis 9 5 3 1 12:8 18
3 Operario VG 9 4 4 1 18:11 16
4 Dom Bosco 9 4 2 3 9:10 14
5 Luverdense 9 3 1 5 8:15 10
6 Academia 9 2 4 3 11:12 10
7 Mixto 9 2 3 4 9:13 9
8 Nova Mutum EC 9 2 3 4 8:9 9
9 Cacerense 9 2 2 5 7:12 8
10 Sport Sinop 9 0 2 7 7:21 2
Promotion - Matogrossense 2023 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Matogrossense 2023 (Play Offs)