Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Novara vs Pergolettese

Italy Italy

Serie C - Group A Stadio Silvio Piola, Novara
Novara Logo

Novara

0 - 1
FT
Pergolettese Logo

Pergolettese

Our Tip

Match Events

27' Event
Pala A.
Assist: Zaia E.
46'
Sub
Valdesi A. In: Lartey S.
Out: Valdesi A.
61'
Basso G.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Serie C - Group A game between Novara and Pergolettese finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Pergolettese.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Novara
20%
Draws
40%
Pergolettese
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Novara carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Novara Clean Sheet 68%
Pergolettese Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Novara Pergolettese
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 10 9
Draws 9 7
Losses 9 12
Goals Scored 1.18 0.93
Goals Conceded 1.04 1.11
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 13, 2026 Serie C - Group A
Novara vs Pergolettese
0:1
Mar 7, 2026 Serie C - Group A
Novara vs Pergolettese
1:1
Nov 1, 2025 Serie C - Group A
Pergolettese vs Novara
2:2
Feb 15, 2025 Serie C - Group A
Pergolettese vs Novara
1:2
Oct 5, 2024 Serie C - Group A
Novara vs Pergolettese
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Novara Compare

Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.41

Pergolettese Compare

Top Goalscorer Pala A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Novara 41 / 100
Pergolettese 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Novara Pergolettese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Novara Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Novara scored in 71% of their last 28 games.

Pergolettese has conceded goals in 71% of their last 28 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Pergolettese's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Novara VS Pergolettese
1 Goals Scored 0.38
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.63
50% Over 1.5 25%
50% Over 2.5 13%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Novara

(Home)
13 Sept
Novara
0 : 1
Pergolettese
07 Sept
Renate
1 : 2
Novara
03 Sept
Novara
0 : 1
Livorno
31 Aug
Novara
2 : 2
Folgore Caratese
22 Aug
Juventus U23
1 : 0
Novara
Page 1 of 6

Pergolettese

(Away)
13 Sept
Novara
0 : 1
Pergolettese
06 Sept
Juventus U23
0 : 0
Pergolettese
30 Aug
Pergolettese
0 : 1
Union Brescia
22 Aug
Cittadella
2 : 0
Pergolettese
14 Aug
Pro Vercelli
2 : 1
Pergolettese
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cittadella 6 6 0 0 10:2 18
2 Union Brescia 6 4 2 0 11:3 14
3 Ospitaletto 6 3 2 1 11:5 11
4 Arzignano 6 3 1 2 7:7 10
5 Alcione Milano 6 2 3 1 9:10 9
6 Trento 5 2 3 0 5:3 9
7 Dolomiti Bellunesi 5 2 3 0 4:2 9
8 AlbinoLeffe 6 2 2 2 9:8 8
9 Treviso 5 2 2 1 7:6 8
10 Lecco 6 2 2 2 4:3 8
11 Carpi 6 1 3 2 10:12 6
12 Novara 6 1 3 2 6:7 6
13 Pergolettese 6 1 3 2 1:3 6
14 Juventus U23 6 1 2 3 7:13 5
15 Pro Vercelli 5 1 2 2 5:6 5
16 Lumezzane 5 1 2 2 4:6 5
17 Desenzano Calvina 5 1 2 2 4:6 5
18 Folgore Caratese 6 0 3 3 6:9 3
19 Giana Erminio 6 0 2 4 5:9 2
20 Renate 6 0 2 4 5:10 2
Promotion - Serie B 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie C - Group A (Play Out)