Sport Picks

Italy

Serie D - Group A

Varese FC

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

NovaRomentin play Varese FC in the Serie D - Group A. Varese FC are favorites here. Recently, NovaRomentin averaged 0.8 goals scored and 2.6 conceded. Varese FC averaged 1.33 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. In past meetings, NovaRomentin won 2, Varese FC won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Feb 22, 2026 ended 3:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.88 for NovaRomentin and 2.13 for Varese FC. This points to a Varese FC double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

24%

NovaRomentin

18%

Draws

58%

Varese FC

Draw rate projection: 18% Favored: Varese FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence

NovaRomentin picked up more points recently compared to Varese FC.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.88 vs 2.13 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%

Over 1.5 Goals 78%

Over 2.5 Goals 55%

Over 3.5 Goals 33%

Over 4.5 Goals 17%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 49%

NovaRomentin Clean Sheet 10%

Varese FC Clean Sheet 17%

First Half Goal 70%

Second Half Goal 74%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	NovaRomentin	Varese FC
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	5	13
Draws	3	7
Losses	22	10
Goals Scored	0.8	1.33
Goals Conceded	2.6	1.5
Expected Goals (xG)	1.00	0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	3.38	0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 22, 2026 Serie D - Group A

NovaRomentin vs Varese FC

Possession: 49% - 44% Cards: 2 - 0

3:1

Oct 19, 2025 Serie D - Group A

Varese FC vs NovaRomentin

Possession: 49% - 54% Cards: 4 - 3

1:0

Mar 23, 2025 Serie D - Group A

NovaRomentin vs Varese FC

Possession: 54% - 43% Cards: 4 - 1

2:0

Nov 10, 2024 Serie D - Group A

Varese FC vs NovaRomentin

Possession: 42% - 42% Cards: 0 - 3

1:1

Feb 4, 2024 Serie D - Group A

Varese FC vs NovaRomentin

Possession: 54% - 43% Cards: 0 - 2

3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

NovaRomentin Compare

Top Goalscorer Bayo I.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Valenti A.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.77

Avg xA / game 0.5

Varese FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Sovogui A.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.8

Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

NovaRomentin 24 / 100

Varese FC 56 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

NovaRomentin Varese FC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Varese FC Win (2)

Secondary Pick Varese FC & Over 2.5

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +50%

6.25

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +12.2%

2.04

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

NovaRomentin attacking → ← attacking Varese FC

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

NovaRomentin scored in 50% of their last 30 games.

Varese FC let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

NovaRomentin went unbeaten in 0 of their last 5 games.

Varese FC lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

18 Points in last 5 46

1.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.88

3.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.75

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vado	34	24	6	4	69:24	78
2	Ligorna	34	21	9	4	64:26	72
3	AS Biellese	34	16	9	9	48:29	57
4	Varese FC	34	16	8	10	43:43	56
5	Chisola	34	16	7	11	44:36	55
6	Sestri Levante	34	15	9	10	54:34	54
7	Sanremese	34	13	10	11	37:30	49
8	Valenzana	34	12	9	13	33:48	45
9	Celle Varazze	34	12	8	14	41:47	44
10	Saluzzo	34	11	10	13	48:44	43
11	Club Milano	34	12	6	16	43:49	42
12	Imperia Calcio	34	10	11	13	36:44	41
13	Cairese	34	9	13	12	29:34	40
14	Derthona FbC	34	11	7	16	36:46	40
15	Gozzano	34	9	12	13	37:42	39
16	Asti Calcio	34	8	11	15	32:42	35
17	Lavagnese	34	5	12	17	32:52	27
18	NovaRomentin	34	6	3	25	26:82	16