Sport Picks

Stadium Background

NovaRomentin vs Varese FC

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group A 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Bayo I.
32' Event
Valenti A.
38' Event
Petracca A.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

NovaRomentin in this Serie D - Group A 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored NovaRomentin.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
NovaRomentin
20%
Draws
80%
Varese FC
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Varese FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Varese FC lately — more wins on the board than NovaRomentin.
  • Win probability leans Varese FC's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group A 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
NovaRomentin Clean Sheet 10%
Varese FC Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric NovaRomentin Varese FC
Matches Played 31 32
Wins 5 15
Draws 3 9
Losses 23 8
Goals Scored 0.77 1.41
Goals Conceded 2.55 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 3.39
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 22, 2026 Serie D - Group A
NovaRomentin vs Varese FC
3:1
Oct 19, 2025 Serie D - Group A
Varese FC vs NovaRomentin
1:0
Mar 23, 2025 Serie D - Group A
NovaRomentin vs Varese FC
2:0
Nov 10, 2024 Serie D - Group A
Varese FC vs NovaRomentin
1:1
Feb 4, 2024 Serie D - Group A
Varese FC vs NovaRomentin
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

NovaRomentin Compare

Top Goalscorer Bayo I.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Valenti A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Varese FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Sovogui A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 3.08
Avg xA / game 1.88

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

NovaRomentin 10 / 100
Varese FC 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
NovaRomentin Varese FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Varese FC Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Varese FC has conceded goals in 63% of their last 32 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

NovaRomentin found the back of the net in 48% of recent matches (31 games).

Away concern: Varese FC has suffered 1 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

NovaRomentin VS Varese FC
1 Goals Scored 1.38
5.4 Goals Conceded 1.75
100% Over 1.5 75%
100% Over 2.5 50%
80% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

NovaRomentin

(Home)
03 May
Ligorna
9 : 1
NovaRomentin
26 Apr
NovaRomentin
0 : 5
Vado
19 Apr
Club Milano
6 : 1
NovaRomentin
12 Apr
NovaRomentin
1 : 2
Imperia Calcio
02 Apr
Sestri Levante
5 : 2
NovaRomentin
Page 1 of 7

Varese FC

(Away)
20 Sept
US Pontedera
0 : 3
Varese FC
16 Sept
Cittadella Vis Modena
0 : 0
Varese FC
12 Sept
Varese FC
0 : 2
Pro Sesto
06 Sept
Tropical Coriano
1 : 1
Varese FC
19 Aug
Varese FC
3 : 2
Pro Palazzolo
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vado 34 24 6 4 69:24 78
2 Ligorna 34 21 9 4 64:26 72
3 AS Biellese 34 16 9 9 48:29 57
4 Varese FC 34 16 8 10 43:43 56
5 Chisola 34 16 7 11 44:36 55
6 Sestri Levante 34 15 9 10 54:34 54
7 Sanremese 34 13 10 11 37:30 49
8 Valenzana 34 12 9 13 33:48 45
9 Celle Varazze 34 12 8 14 41:47 44
10 Saluzzo 34 11 10 13 48:44 43
11 Club Milano 34 12 6 16 43:49 42
12 Imperia Calcio 34 10 11 13 36:44 41
13 Cairese 34 9 13 12 29:34 40
14 Derthona FbC 34 11 7 16 36:46 40
15 Gozzano 34 9 12 13 37:42 39
16 Asti Calcio 34 8 11 15 32:42 35
17 Lavagnese 34 5 12 17 32:52 27
18 NovaRomentin 34 6 3 25 26:82 16
Promotion - Serie D - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Out)