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Novo Hamburgo vs Gramadense

Brazil Brazil

Gaucho 2 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

28' Event
Pablo
41' Event
Kaue
45' Event
Matheus Batista

AI Match Summary

The Gaucho 2 2025 game between Novo Hamburgo and Gramadense finished 4-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Novo Hamburgo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Novo Hamburgo
30%
Draws
34%
Gramadense
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Novo Hamburgo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Novo Hamburgo haven't matched Gramadense's recent run of results.
  • 36% — that's where the model lands on Novo Hamburgo taking it.
  • Regular Gaucho 2 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Novo Hamburgo here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Novo Hamburgo Clean Sheet 68%
Gramadense Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Novo Hamburgo Gramadense
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 11 12
Draws 10 11
Losses 8 5
Goals Scored 1.13 1.38
Goals Conceded 0.88 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 5, 2025 Gaucho 2
Novo Hamburgo vs Gramadense
5:1
Jul 30, 2025 Gaucho 2
Gramadense vs Novo Hamburgo
0:0
Jul 27, 2025 Gaucho 2
Novo Hamburgo vs Gramadense
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Novo Hamburgo Compare

Top Goalscorer Pablo
1 Goals
Assists Leader Kaue
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Gramadense Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Novo Hamburgo 46 / 100
Gramadense 44 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Novo Hamburgo Gramadense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.33 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Novo Hamburgo remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Novo Hamburgo scored in 59% of their last 29 games.

Gramadense has conceded goals in 50% of their last 28 outings.

Scoring Trends

Novo Hamburgo VS Gramadense
1.13 Goals Scored 1.38
0.88 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Novo Hamburgo

(Home)
06 Mar
Novo Hamburgo
1 : 1
Sao Luiz
02 Mar
Sao Luiz
1 : 0
Novo Hamburgo
22 Feb
EC Sao Jose (PA)
1 : 2
Novo Hamburgo
14 Feb
Novo Hamburgo
3 : 2
EC Sao Jose (PA)
07 Feb
Gremio
1 : 0
Novo Hamburgo
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Gramadense

(Away)
12 Jul
Gramadense
1 : 0
Brasil de Pelotas
05 Jul
Gramadense
1 : 1
GE Bage
27 Jun
GE Bage
0 : 1
Gramadense
17 Jun
Santa Cruz RS
2 : 2
Gramadense
11 Jun
Gramadense
1 : 0
Monsoon
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Aimore1494116:531
2Inter Santa Maria1485116:729
3Passo Fundo1476120:1227
4Novo Hamburgo1473417:824
5Gramadense1466213:924
6Veranopolis1465317:923
7GE Bage145639:521
8Lajeadense1456313:1421
9Santa Cruz RS1446412:1118
10Brasil de Farroupilha1443715:2015
11GE Gloria142758:1313
12Esportivo Bento Goncalves1432912:2111
13Uniao Frederiquense De Futebol141766:1610
14SC Gaucho1423915:209
15Real SC1403114:233
16Futvida00000:00
Promotion - Gaucho 2 2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Gaucho 3 2026 (Main)