Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Novo Hamburgo vs Guarany de Bage

Brazil Brazil

Gaucho Estadio do Vale, Novo Hamburgo
Our Tip

Match Events

26'
Talles
45' Event
Allison
Assist: Carlos Maia
57'
Rone Carlos

AI Match Summary

The Gaucho game between Novo Hamburgo and Guarany de Bage finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Novo Hamburgo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Novo Hamburgo
30%
Draws
29%
Guarany de Bage
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Novo Hamburgo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Novo Hamburgo come out ahead of Guarany de Bage on wins alone.
  • Novo Hamburgo are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50%
Over 2.5 Goals 19%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.6%
Novo Hamburgo Clean Sheet 68%
Guarany de Bage Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Novo Hamburgo Guarany de Bage
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 11 6
Draws 10 8
Losses 8 16
Goals Scored 1.28 0.63
Goals Conceded 0.79 1.47
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 31, 2026 Gaucho
Novo Hamburgo vs Guarany de Bage
2:0
Feb 15, 2024 Gaucho
Guarany de Bage vs Novo Hamburgo
2:0
Feb 17, 2022 Gaucho
Novo Hamburgo vs Guarany de Bage
2:0
Mar 11, 2007 Gaucho
Guarany de Bage vs Novo Hamburgo
1:1
Jan 28, 2007 Gaucho
Novo Hamburgo vs Guarany de Bage
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Novo Hamburgo Compare

Top Goalscorer Allison
1 Goals
Assists Leader Matheus Batista
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Guarany de Bage Compare

Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Novo Hamburgo 68 / 100
Guarany de Bage 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Novo Hamburgo Guarany de Bage

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Novo Hamburgo Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Guarany de Bage has conceded goals in 77% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Novo Hamburgo remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Attacking prowess: Novo Hamburgo scored in 59% of their last 29 outings.

Scoring Trends

Novo Hamburgo VS Guarany de Bage
0.5 Goals Scored 0.25
1 Goals Conceded 1.5
50% Over 1.5 50%
0% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Novo Hamburgo

(Home)
06 Mar
Novo Hamburgo
1 : 1
Sao Luiz
02 Mar
Sao Luiz
1 : 0
Novo Hamburgo
22 Feb
EC Sao Jose (PA)
1 : 2
Novo Hamburgo
14 Feb
Novo Hamburgo
3 : 2
EC Sao Jose (PA)
07 Feb
Gremio
1 : 0
Novo Hamburgo
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Guarany de Bage

(Away)
17 Jun
Guarany de Bage
3 : 3
Brasil de Pelotas
14 Jun
GE Bage
1 : 2
Guarany de Bage
07 Jun
Guarany de Bage
0 : 1
Cianorte
03 Jun
Farroupilha
1 : 1
Guarany de Bage
30 May
Joinville
2 : 0
Guarany de Bage
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League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Internacional 6 5 0 1 14:5 15
2 EC Juventude 6 3 3 0 8:3 12
3 EC Sao Jose (PA) 6 2 3 1 4:3 9
4 Sao Luiz 6 1 4 1 6:10 7
5 Avenida 6 1 2 3 4:9 5
6 Guarany de Bage 6 1 2 3 4:10 5
Promotion - Gaucho (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Gremio 6 3 1 2 14:6 10
2 SER Caxias do Sul 6 2 1 3 8:5 7
3 Ypiranga FC 6 1 4 1 7:9 7
4 Novo Hamburgo 6 1 3 2 5:5 6
5 Monsoon 6 1 3 2 5:11 6
6 Inter Santa Maria 6 1 2 3 1:4 5
Promotion - Gaucho (Play Offs)