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Novoperario vs Dourados

Brazil Brazil

Sul-Matogrossense 2023
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Match Events

74' Event

AI Match Summary

The Sul-Matogrossense 2023 game between Novoperario and Dourados finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Dourados.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Novoperario
35%
Draws
32%
Dourados
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Dourados carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Novoperario a 36% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Sul-Matogrossense 2023 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Dourados have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
Novoperario Clean Sheet 18%
Dourados Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Novoperario Dourados
Matches Played 29 41
Wins 6 19
Draws 6 13
Losses 17 9
Goals Scored 1.07 1.51
Goals Conceded 2.24 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.23 1.36
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 2, 2024 Sul-Matogrossense
Novoperario vs Dourados
0:0
Feb 4, 2024 Sul-Matogrossense
Dourados vs Novoperario
2:1
Mar 11, 2023 Sul-Matogrossense
Novoperario vs Dourados
0:1
Feb 12, 2023 Sul-Matogrossense
Dourados vs Novoperario
2:0
Apr 4, 2021 Sul-Matogrossense
Dourados vs Novoperario
6:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Novoperario 36 / 100
Dourados 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Novoperario Dourados

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Novoperario remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Novoperario found the back of the net in 59% of recent matches (29 games).

Dourados has conceded goals in 59% of their last 41 outings.

Scoring Trends

- VS Dourados
0 Goals Scored 1.63
0 Goals Conceded 1.25
0% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Novoperario

(Home)
02 Mar
Novoperario
0 : 0
Dourados
24 Feb
Aquidauanense
2 : 0
Novoperario
21 Feb
Novoperario
1 : 1
Corumbaense
17 Feb
Novoperario
3 : 2
Ivinhema
04 Feb
Dourados
2 : 1
Novoperario
Page 1 of 6

Dourados

(Away)
11 Mar
Corumbaense
2 : 0
Dourados
08 Mar
Dourados
1 : 1
Corumbaense
01 Mar
Dourados
3 : 3
Clube de Regatas Aquidauana
21 Feb
Corumbaense
2 : 0
Dourados
15 Feb
Dourados
7 : 2
Bataguassu
Page 1 of 9

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Costa Rica 8 6 1 1 15:6 19
2 Operario MS 8 5 0 3 13:8 15
3 Chapadao 8 4 1 3 11:10 13
4 Coxim 8 2 2 4 4:11 8
5 Comercial MS 8 0 2 6 4:12 2
Promotion - Sul-Matogrossense 2023 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Dourados 8 6 1 1 11:5 19
2 Ivinhema 8 3 2 3 14:9 11
3 Novoperario 8 3 2 3 11:10 11
4 Aquidauanense 8 3 1 4 9:15 10
5 Operario AC 8 1 2 5 9:15 5
Promotion - Sul-Matogrossense 2023 (Play Offs)