Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Novoperario vs Nautico MS

Brazil Brazil

Sul-Matogrossense 2023
Novoperario Logo

Novoperario

Sat, Feb 18, 2023
VS
07:00 PM
Nautico MS Logo

Nautico MS

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Novoperario host Nautico MS in the Sul-Matogrossense 2023. Novoperario are expected to control this from the start. Recent numbers: Novoperario at 0.96 goals for, 2.32 against; Nautico MS at 0.75 for, 2.63 against. Past meetings favor Novoperario slightly — 0-0-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Mar 19, 2023, ending 0:0. Model xG sits at 1.56 vs 1.13, favoring Novoperario. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
Novoperario
20%
Draws
0%
Nautico MS
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Novoperario

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / Very High Confidence
  • Novoperario carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Novoperario are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Novoperario Clean Sheet 20%
Nautico MS Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Novoperario Nautico MS
Matches Played 28 8
Wins 5 0
Draws 6 0
Losses 17 8
Goals Scored 0.96 0.75
Goals Conceded 2.32 2.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 19, 2023 Sul-Matogrossense
Nautico MS vs Novoperario
0:0
Feb 18, 2023 Sul-Matogrossense
Novoperario vs Nautico MS
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Novoperario 85 / 100
Nautico MS 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Novoperario Nautico MS

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Novoperario Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nautico MS let in goals in 100% of their last 8 matches.

Nautico MS lost 5 of their last 5 games.

Solid form: Novoperario remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Novoperario scored in 57% of their last 28 games.

Scoring Trends

Novoperario VS Nautico MS
0.88 Goals Scored 0.63
1.63 Goals Conceded 2.25
88% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Novoperario

(Home)
02 Mar
Novoperario
0 : 0
Dourados
24 Feb
Aquidauanense
2 : 0
Novoperario
21 Feb
Novoperario
1 : 1
Corumbaense
17 Feb
Novoperario
3 : 2
Ivinhema
04 Feb
Dourados
2 : 1
Novoperario
Page 1 of 6

Nautico MS

(Away)
03 Mar
Nautico MS
1 : 3
Coxim
29 Feb
Nautico MS
3 : 4
Pantanal
17 Feb
Costa Rica
2 : 0
Nautico MS
14 Feb
Operario MS
2 : 0
Nautico MS
04 Feb
Coxim
3 : 1
Nautico MS
Page 1 of 2

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Costa Rica 8 6 1 1 15:6 19
2 Operario MS 8 5 0 3 13:8 15
3 Chapadao 8 4 1 3 11:10 13
4 Coxim 8 2 2 4 4:11 8
5 Comercial MS 8 0 2 6 4:12 2
Promotion - Sul-Matogrossense 2023 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Dourados 8 6 1 1 11:5 19
2 Ivinhema 8 3 2 3 14:9 11
3 Novoperario 8 3 2 3 11:10 11
4 Aquidauanense 8 3 1 4 9:15 10
5 Operario AC 8 1 2 5 9:15 5
Promotion - Sul-Matogrossense 2023 (Play Offs)