Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Novorizontino vs Avai

Brazil Brazil

Copa Sul-Sudeste Estadio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi, Novo Horizonte
Our Tip

Match Events

12' Event
Oliveira dos Santos J. V.
27' Event
Hector Bianchi
34'
Jhones

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-2. The second leg ended 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Novorizontino
15%
Draws
59%
Avai
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Avai

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Novorizontino carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Novorizontino's way, sitting at 36%.
  • Novorizontino have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Avai, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Novorizontino Clean Sheet 20%
Avai Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Novorizontino Avai
Matches Played 29 27
Wins 12 9
Draws 9 6
Losses 8 12
Goals Scored 1.45 1.26
Goals Conceded 1 1.3
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Serie B
Avai vs Novorizontino
3:3
Apr 30, 2026 Copa Sul-Sudeste
Novorizontino vs Avai
1:2
Aug 3, 2025 Serie B
Novorizontino vs Avai
1:1
Apr 6, 2025 Serie B
Avai vs Novorizontino
1:1
Oct 23, 2024 Serie B
Novorizontino vs Avai
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Novorizontino Compare

Top Goalscorer Hector Bianchi
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Avai Compare

Top Goalscorer Oliveira dos Santos J. V.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Walace Franca
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Novorizontino 36 / 100
Avai 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Novorizontino Avai

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Novorizontino found the back of the net in 76% of recent matches (29 games).

Avai let in goals in 67% of their last 27 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Novorizontino stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Novorizontino VS Avai
1.5 Goals Scored 1.13
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Novorizontino

(Home)
09 Aug
Novorizontino
0 : 1
EC Juventude
26 Jul
Londrina
1 : 4
Novorizontino
21 Jul
Novorizontino
0 : 1
Criciuma
18 Jul
Fortaleza
1 : 0
Novorizontino
12 Jul
Operario-PR
2 : 1
Novorizontino
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Avai

(Away)
28 Jul
EC Juventude
1 : 0
Avai
21 Jul
Avai
2 : 1
America MG
17 Jul
Sao Bernardo
1 : 1
Avai
12 Jul
Avai
2 : 0
Nautico
06 Jul
Botafogo SP
3 : 1
Avai
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League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Chapecoense-SC 6 4 1 1 8:5 13
2 Novorizontino 6 3 2 1 8:5 11
3 SER Caxias do Sul 6 3 2 1 6:3 11
4 Cianorte 6 2 2 2 9:10 8
5 Tombense 6 1 2 3 11:13 5
6 Sampaio Correa FE 6 1 2 3 7:9 5
Promotion - Copa Sul-Sudeste (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Avai 6 3 1 2 10:8 10
2 Volta Redonda 6 3 1 2 9:8 10
3 Operario-PR 6 2 3 1 5:4 9
4 America MG 6 2 2 2 11:11 8
5 EC Juventude 6 1 1 4 4:9 4
6 Sao Bernardo 6 0 3 3 6:9 3
Promotion - Copa Sul-Sudeste (Play Offs)