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Ntugasaze vs Maroons

Uganda Uganda

Premier League Kiira Road Police Arena, Kampala
Our Tip

Match Events

18' Event
Nunda J.
37' Event
Nunda J.
Assist: Kabona E.
48' Event
Oshaba M.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

The Premier League game between Ntugasaze and Maroons finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Maroons.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Ntugasaze
15%
Draws
42%
Maroons
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Ntugasaze

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Ntugasaze come out ahead of Maroons on wins alone.
  • Model gives Ntugasaze a 43% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Ntugasaze Clean Sheet 68%
Maroons Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ntugasaze Maroons
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 13 9
Draws 8 9
Losses 8 13
Goals Scored 1.45 0.94
Goals Conceded 1 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 2, 2026 Premier League
Ntugasaze vs Maroons
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ntugasaze Compare

Top Goalscorer Kaye R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Maroons Compare

Top Goalscorer Nunda J.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ntugasaze 68 / 100
Maroons 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ntugasaze Maroons

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ntugasaze Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Ntugasaze scored in 79% of their last 29 games.

Maroons's defensive record shows goals conceded in 65% of 31 matches.

Maroons lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Ntugasaze VS Maroons
1.5 Goals Scored 1.13
1 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Ntugasaze

(Home)
08 Sept
BUL
4 : 1
Ntugasaze
02 Sept
Ntugasaze
1 : 3
Maroons
29 Aug
Blacks Power
1 : 0
Ntugasaze
06 Jun
Kiyinda Boys
0 : 3
Ntugasaze
24 May
Ntugasaze
2 : 1
Bunyaruguru
Page 1 of 6

Maroons

(Away)
17 Sept
UPDF FC
1 : 0
Maroons
08 Sept
Maroons
1 : 2
Blacks Power
02 Sept
Ntugasaze
1 : 3
Maroons
30 Aug
Maroons
1 : 2
Uganda Revenue
23 May
Lugazi
0 : 1
Maroons
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 BUL 4 4 0 0 11:3 12
2 NEC FC 4 3 1 0 9:2 10
3 Villa 4 3 1 0 7:1 10
4 Blacks Power 4 3 0 1 5:3 9
5 Police 4 2 1 1 3:1 7
6 Entebbe UPPC 4 2 1 1 3:2 7
7 Lugazi 4 2 0 2 4:6 6
8 UPDF FC 4 1 2 1 2:2 5
9 Express FC 4 1 1 2 3:4 4
10 Kampala City 4 1 1 2 1:4 4
11 Uganda Revenue 3 1 0 2 3:6 3
12 Maroons 4 1 0 3 5:6 3
13 Kitara 2 0 2 0 2:2 2
14 Mbarara City 3 0 2 1 0:1 2
15 Kataka 3 0 1 2 1:5 1
16 Kigezi HomeBoyz 3 0 1 2 1:5 1
17 Vipers 1 0 0 1 0:1 0
18 Ntugasaze 3 0 0 3 2:8 0
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Big League 2027/2028 (Main)