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Stadium Background

Nublense vs D. Puerto Montt - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Chile Chile

Copa Chile Estadio Municipal Nelson Oyarzun Arenas, Chillán
Nublense Logo

Nublense

2 - 1
FT
D. Puerto Montt Logo

D. Puerto Montt

Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Calderon E.
Assist: Molina Canto L.
18'
Paredes R.
24'
Reyes L.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-1. The second leg ended 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Nublense
15%
Draws
42%
D. Puerto Montt
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Nublense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • Nublense carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 42% — that's where the model lands on D. Puerto Montt taking it.
  • Nublense have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Nublense, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Nublense Clean Sheet 18%
D. Puerto Montt Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nublense D. Puerto Montt
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 13 11
Draws 7 4
Losses 9 15
Goals Scored 1.28 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.31 1.3
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 26, 2026 Copa Chile
Nublense vs D. Puerto Montt
2:1
Sep 22, 2026 Copa Chile
D. Puerto Montt vs Nublense
2:0
Oct 29, 2024 Copa Chile
Nublense vs D. Puerto Montt
2:1
Oct 23, 2024 Copa Chile
D. Puerto Montt vs Nublense
1:1
Nov 20, 2020 Liga de Ascenso
D. Puerto Montt vs Nublense
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nublense Compare

Top Goalscorer Calderon E.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

D. Puerto Montt Compare

Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nublense 28 / 100
D. Puerto Montt 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nublense D. Puerto Montt

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick D. Puerto Montt Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nublense found the back of the net in 76% of recent matches (29 games).

D. Puerto Montt let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

D. Puerto Montt lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Nublense VS D. Puerto Montt
1 Goals Scored 0.88
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Nublense

(Home)
26 Sept
Nublense
2 : 1
D. Puerto Montt
22 Sept
D. Puerto Montt
2 : 0
Nublense
12 Sept
Nublense
1 : 3
Everton
06 Sept
La Serena
2 : 1
Nublense
03 Sept
Limache
2 : 0
Nublense
Page 1 of 6

D. Puerto Montt

(Away)
03 Oct
Copiapo
3 : 0
D. Puerto Montt
29 Sept
D. Puerto Montt
0 : 1
Colo Colo
26 Sept
Nublense
2 : 1
D. Puerto Montt
22 Sept
D. Puerto Montt
2 : 0
Nublense
13 Sept
Magallanes
2 : 0
D. Puerto Montt
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Colo Colo 1
A. Italiano 0
Nublense 2
D. Puerto Montt 3
Deportes Santa Cruz 2
O Higgins 5
D. Concepcion 6
Curico Unido 0
U. De Chile 2
Everton 1
Antofagasta 5
Deportes Iquique 2
U. Catolica 1
Union La Calera 2
Coquimbo 4
Cobreloa 2
Quarter-finals
Colo Colo 2
D. Puerto Montt 0
O Higgins 3
D. Concepcion 0
U. De Chile 0
Antofagasta 2
Union La Calera -
Coquimbo -
Semi-finals
TBD -
O Higgins -
TBD -
TBD -
Final
TBD -
TBD -