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Nueve de Octubre vs EL Nacional - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Ecuador Ecuador

Serie B Estadio Modelo Alberto Spencer, Guayaquil
Nueve de Octubre Logo

Nueve de Octubre

3 - 1
FT
EL Nacional Logo

EL Nacional

Our Tip

Match Events

7' Event
Quintero J.
35' Event
Johnson Mina R. I.
40' Event
Moreira L.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Serie B game between Nueve de Octubre and EL Nacional finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Nueve de Octubre.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Nueve de Octubre
15%
Draws
42%
EL Nacional
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Nueve de Octubre

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Nueve de Octubre come out ahead of EL Nacional on wins alone.
  • 43% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Serie B form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Nueve de Octubre Clean Sheet 68%
EL Nacional Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nueve de Octubre EL Nacional
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 11 5
Draws 12 6
Losses 7 18
Goals Scored 1.1 1.03
Goals Conceded 0.73 1.66
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 6, 2026 Serie B
EL Nacional vs Nueve de Octubre
1:0
May 17, 2026 Serie B
Nueve de Octubre vs EL Nacional
3:1
Sep 18, 2025 Copa Ecuador
Nueve de Octubre vs EL Nacional
2:1
Nov 2, 2022 Copa Ecuador
Nueve de Octubre vs EL Nacional
0:0
Sep 9, 2022 Copa Ecuador
EL Nacional vs Nueve de Octubre
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nueve de Octubre Compare

Top Goalscorer Johnson Mina R. I.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Moreira L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

EL Nacional Compare

Top Goalscorer Quintero J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nueve de Octubre 41 / 100
EL Nacional 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nueve de Octubre EL Nacional

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Nueve de Octubre Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

EL Nacional let in goals in 86% of their last 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

EL Nacional's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Nueve de Octubre scored in 57% of their last 30 games.

Scoring Trends

Nueve de Octubre VS EL Nacional
1.38 Goals Scored 0.63
1 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Nueve de Octubre

(Home)
08 Oct
Independiente Juniors
1 : 0
Nueve de Octubre
03 Oct
Nueve de Octubre
0 : 1
Atletico FC
26 Sept
Nueve de Octubre
3 : 0
San Antonio
17 Sept
Vinotinto
1 : 0
Nueve de Octubre
12 Sept
Nueve de Octubre
3 : 1
Independiente Juniors
Page 1 of 6

EL Nacional

(Away)
07 Oct
22 de Julio
2 : 5
EL Nacional
03 Oct
LDU Portoviejo
3 : 2
EL Nacional
26 Sept
EL Nacional
0 : 3
Cumbaya
18 Sept
Dep. Santo Domingo
1 : 0
EL Nacional
12 Sept
EL Nacional
3 : 0
22 de Julio
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Independiente Juniors 22 10 9 3 28:16 39
2 Atletico FC 22 9 11 2 25:14 38
3 Nueve de Octubre 22 9 10 3 22:14 37
4 CD Cuenca Juniors 22 9 7 6 20:23 34
5 Vinotinto 22 8 7 7 25:17 31
6 San Antonio 22 7 10 5 24:21 31
7 LDU Portoviejo 22 7 6 9 17:22 27
8 Cumbaya 22 5 11 6 22:22 26
9 Dep. Santo Domingo 22 6 10 6 17:16 25
10 Gualaceo 22 7 8 7 19:16 23
11 EL Nacional 22 2 6 14 15:32 9
12 22 de Julio 22 4 3 15 10:31 9
Promotion - Serie B (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Serie B (Relegation Group)