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Numancia vs Navalcarnero - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Spain Spain

Segunda RFEF - Group 5
Sat, Oct 24, 2026
VS
03:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Numancia host Navalcarnero in the Segunda RFEF - Group 5. This shapes up as a tight, low-scoring affair. Recent numbers: Numancia at 1.07 goals for, 0.68 against; Navalcarnero at 1.57 for, 1.39 against. Head-to-head, Numancia have won 1 to Navalcarnero's 0, with 1 draws. They last met on Feb 25, 2024, ending 1:1. Model xG sits at 0.94 vs 0.94, favoring Numancia. AI goal market prediction: Over 2.5, BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Numancia
35%
Draws
28%
Navalcarnero
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Numancia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Navalcarnero average 1.57 goals a game right now, well clear of Numancia's 1.07.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Segunda RFEF - Group 5 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Numancia Clean Sheet 20%
Navalcarnero Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Numancia Navalcarnero
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 11 11
Draws 12 5
Losses 5 12
Goals Scored 1.07 1.57
Goals Conceded 0.68 1.39
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 25, 2024 Segunda RFEF - Group 5
Navalcarnero vs Numancia
1:1
Oct 15, 2023 Segunda RFEF - Group 5
Numancia vs Navalcarnero
2:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Numancia 32 / 100
Navalcarnero 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Numancia Navalcarnero

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Navalcarnero let in goals in 82% of their last 28 matches.

Numancia has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Numancia scored in 68% of their last 28 games.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Scoring Trends

Numancia VS Navalcarnero
0.75 Goals Scored 1.75
0.13 Goals Conceded 1.13
38% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Numancia

(Home)
11 Oct
Real Avila
1 : 1
Numancia
04 Oct
Getafe B
0 : 0
Numancia
27 Sept
Numancia
1 : 0
Guadalajara
19 Sept
San Sebastian Reyes
0 : 0
Numancia
13 Sept
Numancia
2 : 0
Atl. Madrid C
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Navalcarnero

(Away)
14 Oct
Recreativo Huelva
3 : 2
Navalcarnero
11 Oct
Navalcarnero
1 : 1
Atl. Madrid C
04 Oct
RSD Alcala
1 : 3
Navalcarnero
30 Sept
Navalcarnero
3 : 1
Murcia
27 Sept
Navalcarnero
1 : 3
Conquense
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Conquense 6 4 1 1 14:7 13
2 Atl. Madrid C 6 4 1 1 9:6 13
3 Numancia 6 3 3 0 6:1 12
4 Salamanca CF UDS 6 4 0 2 10:7 12
5 CF Talavera 6 3 2 1 9:6 11
6 Valladolid Promesas 6 3 1 2 12:5 10
7 San Sebastian Reyes 6 3 1 2 9:6 10
8 Guadalajara 6 2 2 2 12:10 8
9 Gimnastica Segoviana 6 2 2 2 12:11 8
10 Navalcarnero 6 2 2 2 9:9 8
11 RSD Alcala 6 2 1 3 10:10 7
12 Real Avila 6 2 1 3 6:9 7
13 Atletico Tordesillas 6 1 2 3 8:10 5
14 Atletico Paso 6 1 2 3 4:7 5
15 Puertollano C.F. 6 1 2 3 2:8 5
16 Albacete B 6 1 2 3 7:19 5
17 Real Madrid C 6 0 4 2 1:4 4
18 Getafe B 6 0 3 3 4:9 3
Promotion - Segunda RFEF - Group 1 (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Segunda RFEF - Group 1 (Play Out)