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Numancia vs Ursaria

Spain Spain

Segunda RFEF - Group 5 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

17'
Lupu A.
48' Event
Ribeiro A.
65'
Martin J.

AI Match Summary

Numancia in this Segunda RFEF - Group 5 2023/2024 matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Numancia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
Numancia
15%
Draws
27%
Ursaria
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Numancia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Numancia lately — more wins on the board than Ursaria.
  • Win probability leans Numancia's way, sitting at 70%.
  • Regular Segunda RFEF - Group 5 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.8%
Numancia Clean Sheet 68%
Ursaria Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Numancia Ursaria
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 14 11
Draws 10 5
Losses 7 14
Goals Scored 1.26 0.97
Goals Conceded 0.68 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.17 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 21, 2024 Segunda RFEF - Group 5
Ursaria vs Numancia
0:1
Dec 10, 2023 Segunda RFEF - Group 5
Numancia vs Ursaria
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Numancia Compare

Top Goalscorer Ribeiro A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Sanz D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.9
Avg xA / game 0.58

Ursaria Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Numancia 77 / 100
Ursaria 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Numancia Ursaria

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Numancia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Numancia went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Numancia scored in 71% of their last 31 games.

Ursaria's defensive record shows goals conceded in 70% of 30 matches.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Numancia VS -
1.13 Goals Scored 0
1 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
38% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Numancia

(Home)
19 Sept
San Sebastian Reyes
0 : 0
Numancia
13 Sept
Numancia
2 : 0
Atl. Madrid C
06 Sept
Atletico Paso
0 : 2
Numancia
26 Aug
Numancia
2 : 1
Utebo FC
22 Aug
Numancia
2 : 1
Zaragoza
Page 1 of 7

Ursaria

(Away)
05 May
Ursaria
1 : 0
Villanovense
28 Apr
Navalcarnero
2 : 1
Ursaria
21 Apr
Ursaria
0 : 1
Numancia
14 Apr
Illescas
1 : 2
Ursaria
07 Apr
Ursaria
0 : 1
Atletico Paso
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Gimnastica Segoviana 34 17 10 7 46:27 61
2 San Sebastian Reyes 34 16 13 5 61:26 61
3 Numancia 34 18 6 10 51:39 60
4 Getafe B 34 15 12 7 41:32 57
5 Atletico Paso 34 15 11 8 28:21 56
6 Cacereno 34 12 13 9 43:37 49
7 Union Adarve 34 12 12 10 44:44 48
8 Navalcarnero 34 11 13 10 34:35 46
9 CF Talavera 34 12 10 12 31:27 46
10 Guadalajara 34 14 4 16 46:53 46
11 Villanovense 34 12 8 14 35:35 44
12 Ursaria 34 12 8 14 34:39 44
13 Illescas 34 11 11 12 34:32 44
14 AD Llerenense 34 12 8 14 31:36 44
15 UD San Fernando 34 9 11 14 31:43 38
16 CD Badajoz 34 8 13 13 35:39 37
17 Mensajero 34 5 10 19 28:58 25
18 Montijo 34 6 5 23 28:58 23
Promotion - Segunda RFEF - Group 1 2023/2024 (Promotion - Play Offs)