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Nuova Gioiese vs Locri 1909 - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group I 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

17' Event
Marsico A.
(Penalty)
56' Event
Pappalardo M.
90' Event
Marsico A.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group I 2023/2024 game between Nuova Gioiese and Locri 1909 finished 0-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Locri 1909.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Nuova Gioiese
30%
Draws
23%
Locri 1909
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Nuova Gioiese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

23% / Low Confidence
  • Locri 1909 carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • Regular Serie D - Group I 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Nuova Gioiese Clean Sheet 19%
Locri 1909 Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nuova Gioiese Locri 1909
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 2 6
Draws 3 7
Losses 24 18
Goals Scored 0.52 1.1
Goals Conceded 2.41 1.77
Expected Goals (xG) 1.60 1.30
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 28, 2024 Serie D - Group I
Nuova Gioiese vs Locri 1909
0:3
Oct 1, 2023 Serie D - Group I
Locri 1909 vs Nuova Gioiese
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nuova Gioiese Compare

Avg xG / game 1.23
Avg xA / game 0.8

Locri 1909 Compare

Top Goalscorer Pappalardo M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Marsico A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.18
Avg xA / game 0.72

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nuova Gioiese 36 / 100
Locri 1909 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nuova Gioiese Locri 1909

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Locri 1909 Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:3
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Locri 1909 conceded in 84% of 31 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Locri 1909 lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Nuova Gioiese's goal record stands at 38% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Locri 1909
0 Goals Scored 1.5
0 Goals Conceded 2
0% Over 1.5 100%
0% Over 2.5 75%
0% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Nuova Gioiese

(Home)
05 May
Castrovillari
0 : 2
Nuova Gioiese
28 Apr
Nuova Gioiese
1 : 2
Trapani
21 Apr
USD Ragusa
2 : 1
Nuova Gioiese
14 Apr
Nuova Gioiese
2 : 2
S. Agata
28 Mar
Licata
4 : 0
Nuova Gioiese
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Locri 1909

(Away)
04 May
Locri 1909
1 : 1
AS Acireale
27 Apr
Enna
1 : 1
Locri 1909
17 Apr
Locri 1909
2 : 3
Reggina
13 Apr
USD Ragusa
2 : 1
Locri 1909
06 Apr
Locri 1909
1 : 2
S. Agata
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Trapani 34 30 4 0 95:15 94
2 Siracusa 34 25 6 3 79:26 81
3 Vibonese 34 22 6 6 67:29 72
4 Reggina 34 19 8 7 54:25 65
5 AS Acireale 34 15 9 10 39:41 54
6 S. Agata 34 15 7 12 46:35 52
7 Real Casalnuovo 34 15 6 13 52:49 51
8 USD Ragusa 34 14 8 12 41:38 50
9 Canicatti 34 14 6 14 55:51 48
10 Igea Virtus 34 13 6 15 38:40 45
11 Licata 34 12 7 15 43:54 43
12 Akragas 34 12 6 16 42:53 42
13 Sancataldese 34 9 10 15 32:43 37
14 Portici 1906 34 8 8 18 32:55 32
15 San Luca 34 6 12 16 37:55 29
16 Locri 1909 34 7 7 20 34:68 28
17 Castrovillari 34 2 12 20 29:76 17
18 Nuova Gioiese 34 3 2 29 18:80 11
19 Lamezia Terme 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Serie D - Group I 2023/2024 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group I 2023/2024 (Play Out)