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O Elvas CAD vs Lagoa - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

7' Event
Gracio D.
14' Event
Mendonca C.
67' Event
Medina C.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2025/2026 game between O Elvas CAD and Lagoa finished 4-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward O Elvas CAD.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

56%
O Elvas CAD
20%
Draws
24%
Lagoa
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: O Elvas CAD

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

56% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Lagoa come out ahead of O Elvas CAD on wins alone.
  • 56% — that's where the model lands on O Elvas CAD taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
O Elvas CAD Clean Sheet 68%
Lagoa Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric O Elvas CAD Lagoa
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 11 12
Draws 8 8
Losses 10 9
Goals Scored 1.41 1.59
Goals Conceded 1.03 1.28
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 1, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
O Elvas CAD vs Lagoa
4:0
Oct 25, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Lagoa vs O Elvas CAD
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

O Elvas CAD Compare

Top Goalscorer Gracio D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mendonca C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Lagoa Compare

Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

O Elvas CAD 95 / 100
Lagoa 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
O Elvas CAD Lagoa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick O Elvas CAD Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

O Elvas CAD scored in 66% of their last 29 games.

Defensive concern: Lagoa conceded in 76% of 29 recent games.

O Elvas CAD went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

O Elvas CAD VS Lagoa
2 Goals Scored 1.13
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.75
63% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

O Elvas CAD

(Home)
27 Sept
O Elvas CAD
2 : 0
Sertanense
19 Sept
O Elvas CAD
0 : 2
Leiria
13 Sept
Fazendense
1 : 2
O Elvas CAD
06 Sept
O Elvas CAD
9 : 0
Sao Roque
23 Aug
GD Os Nazarenos
0 : 1
O Elvas CAD
Page 1 of 6

Lagoa

(Away)
19 Sept
Atletico CP
4 : 1
Lagoa
13 Sept
Lagoa
0 : 0
Serpa
06 Sept
Santa Clara B
1 : 2
Lagoa
23 Aug
Imortal
1 : 0
Lagoa
16 Aug
Aljustrelense
1 : 1
Lagoa
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Louletano 26 14 8 4 36:15 50
2 Malveira 26 13 8 5 38:23 47
3 Alverca B 26 14 5 7 49:32 47
4 Juv. Evora 26 12 10 4 36:23 46
5 GD Alcochetense 26 11 8 7 33:22 41
6 Sintrense 26 11 7 8 30:25 40
7 Lagoa 26 11 6 9 44:34 39
8 O Elvas CAD 26 9 7 10 33:29 34
9 Serpa 26 9 7 10 28:34 34
10 Oriental 26 7 11 8 29:35 32
11 Moncarapachense 26 7 10 9 21:21 31
12 Portimonense B 26 6 4 16 19:42 22
13 Industria 26 2 8 16 20:45 14
14 Vasco da Gama Vidigueira 26 1 11 14 20:56 14
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)