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O Elvas CAD vs Malveira

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

42' Event
Castillo D.
56' Event
Castillo D.
90' Event
Dos Santos I.

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2025/2026 game between O Elvas CAD and Malveira finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Malveira.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
O Elvas CAD
35%
Draws
20%
Malveira
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: O Elvas CAD

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • O Elvas CAD haven't matched Malveira's recent run of results.
  • 45% — that's where the model lands on O Elvas CAD taking it.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 60.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 8.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 4%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
O Elvas CAD Clean Sheet 68%
Malveira Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric O Elvas CAD Malveira
Matches Played 29 33
Wins 10 13
Draws 8 10
Losses 11 10
Goals Scored 1.45 1.33
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.18
Expected Goals (xG) 1.60 0.53
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 17, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
O Elvas CAD vs Malveira
1:3
Aug 16, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Malveira vs O Elvas CAD
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

O Elvas CAD Compare

Top Goalscorer Bernal J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.23
Avg xA / game 0.8

Malveira Compare

Top Goalscorer Castillo D.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Dos Santos I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.29

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

O Elvas CAD 95 / 100
Malveira 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
O Elvas CAD Malveira

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick O Elvas CAD Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Solid form: O Elvas CAD remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

O Elvas CAD found the back of the net in 69% of recent matches (29 games).

Malveira has conceded goals in 70% of their last 33 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.50 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

O Elvas CAD VS Malveira
1.83 Goals Scored 0.88
0.17 Goals Conceded 1.38
33% Over 1.5 88%
17% Over 2.5 50%
17% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

O Elvas CAD

(Home)
06 Sept
O Elvas CAD
9 : 0
Sao Roque
23 Aug
GD Os Nazarenos
0 : 1
O Elvas CAD
16 Aug
O Elvas CAD
1 : 1
Fatima
18 Apr
O Elvas CAD
0 : 0
Moncarapachense
12 Apr
Industria
0 : 0
O Elvas CAD
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Malveira

(Away)
06 Sept
Malveira
3 : 0
GD Os Nazarenos
29 Aug
Malveira
2 : 3
Mafra
23 Aug
Fatima
5 : 0
Malveira
16 Aug
Malveira
0 : 1
Os Marialvas
31 May
Oliveira Hospital
1 : 1
Malveira
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Louletano 26 14 8 4 36:15 50
2 Malveira 26 13 8 5 38:23 47
3 Alverca B 26 14 5 7 49:32 47
4 Juv. Evora 26 12 10 4 36:23 46
5 GD Alcochetense 26 11 8 7 33:22 41
6 Sintrense 26 11 7 8 30:25 40
7 Lagoa 26 11 6 9 44:34 39
8 O Elvas CAD 26 9 7 10 33:29 34
9 Serpa 26 9 7 10 28:34 34
10 Oriental 26 7 11 8 29:35 32
11 Moncarapachense 26 7 10 9 21:21 31
12 Portimonense B 26 6 4 16 19:42 22
13 Industria 26 2 8 16 20:45 14
14 Vasco da Gama Vidigueira 26 1 11 14 20:56 14
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)