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O Elvas CAD vs Sertanense - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C Campo Domingos Carrilho Patalino, Elvas
Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Cotao P.
90' Event
Nagana S.

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Group C game between O Elvas CAD and Sertanense finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward O Elvas CAD.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

69%
O Elvas CAD
20%
Draws
11%
Sertanense
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: O Elvas CAD

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / High Confidence
  • Sertanense haven't matched O Elvas CAD's recent run of results.
  • 69% — that's where the model lands on O Elvas CAD taking it.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group C form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors O Elvas CAD here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 65%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 21%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.200000000000003%
O Elvas CAD Clean Sheet 68%
Sertanense Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric O Elvas CAD Sertanense
Matches Played 33 29
Wins 14 4
Draws 9 11
Losses 10 14
Goals Scored 1.42 0.69
Goals Conceded 0.91 1.21
Expected Goals (xG) 1.29 0.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 27, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
O Elvas CAD vs Sertanense
2:0
Mar 2, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Sertanense vs O Elvas CAD
0:0
Nov 3, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
O Elvas CAD vs Sertanense
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

O Elvas CAD Compare

Top Goalscorer Cotao P.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Nagana S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.99
Avg xA / game 0.65

Sertanense Compare

Avg xG / game 0.63
Avg xA / game 0.38

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

O Elvas CAD 95 / 100
Sertanense 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
O Elvas CAD Sertanense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick O Elvas CAD Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sertanense's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 29 matches.

O Elvas CAD found the back of the net in 67% of recent matches (33 games).

Solid form: O Elvas CAD remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Away concern: Sertanense has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

O Elvas CAD VS Sertanense
1.25 Goals Scored 0.5
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.33
63% Over 1.5 67%
50% Over 2.5 17%
25% Over 3.5 17%

Recent Form & Match History

O Elvas CAD

(Home)
27 Sept
O Elvas CAD
2 : 0
Sertanense
19 Sept
O Elvas CAD
0 : 2
Leiria
13 Sept
Fazendense
1 : 2
O Elvas CAD
06 Sept
O Elvas CAD
9 : 0
Sao Roque
23 Aug
GD Os Nazarenos
0 : 1
O Elvas CAD
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Sertanense

(Away)
27 Sept
O Elvas CAD
2 : 0
Sertanense
13 Sept
Sertanense
1 : 1
Malveira
30 Aug
Alcains
1 : 0
Sertanense
23 Aug
Sertanense
1 : 3
Mortagua FC
16 Aug
Nogueirense
1 : 1
Sertanense
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mortagua FC 4 3 1 0 9:4 10
2 O Elvas CAD 4 3 1 0 6:2 10
3 Oliveira Hospital 4 3 0 1 6:4 9
4 Os Marialvas 4 3 0 1 8:2 9
5 Uniao Da Serra 4 2 2 0 6:4 8
6 Naval 1893 4 2 0 2 6:4 6
7 Nogueirense 4 1 3 0 8:7 6
8 SB Castelo Branco 4 2 0 2 7:9 6
9 Fatima 4 1 1 2 6:5 4
10 Malveira 4 1 1 2 4:7 4
11 Alverca B 4 1 0 3 6:4 3
12 Sertanense 4 0 2 2 3:7 2
13 Fazendense 4 0 1 3 5:12 1
14 GD Os Nazarenos 4 0 0 4 1:10 0
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Campeonato de Portugal - Relegation Group 2026/2027 (Main)