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Ocotal vs Matagalpa Prediction & H2H Stats

Nicaragua Nicaragua

Liga Primera 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

50' Event
Landazuri V.

AI Match Summary

The Liga Primera 2024/2025 game between Ocotal and Matagalpa finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Matagalpa.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

21%
Ocotal
15%
Draws
64%
Matagalpa
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Matagalpa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Matagalpa carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Matagalpa a 64% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Liga Primera 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Matagalpa have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
Ocotal Clean Sheet 18%
Matagalpa Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ocotal Matagalpa
Matches Played 30 34
Wins 5 13
Draws 4 6
Losses 21 15
Goals Scored 0.87 1.41
Goals Conceded 2.37 1.44
Expected Goals (xG) 1.35 1.36
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 8, 2025 Liga Primera
Matagalpa vs Ocotal
3:0
Feb 13, 2025 Liga Primera
Ocotal vs Matagalpa
0:1
Oct 21, 2024 Liga Primera
Ocotal vs Matagalpa
0:1
Aug 11, 2024 Liga Primera
Matagalpa vs Ocotal
1:1
Apr 17, 2024 Liga Primera
Matagalpa vs Ocotal
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ocotal Compare

Avg xG / game 1.04
Avg xA / game 0.68

Matagalpa Compare

Top Goalscorer Landazuri V.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.24
Avg xA / game 0.76

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ocotal 28 / 100
Matagalpa 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ocotal Matagalpa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Matagalpa Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Matagalpa conceded in 68% of 34 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Ocotal's goal record stands at 50% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Ocotal has registered 1 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

- VS Matagalpa
0 Goals Scored 1.63
0 Goals Conceded 1.5
0% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Ocotal

(Home)
30 Apr
Ocotal
0 : 2
Diriangen
27 Apr
Sport Sebaco
2 : 1
Ocotal
17 Apr
Esteli
3 : 2
Ocotal
13 Apr
UNAN-Managua
4 : 0
Ocotal
07 Apr
Ocotal
2 : 0
Rancho Santana
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Matagalpa

(Away)
07 Sept
Matagalpa
0 : 3
Diriangen
04 Sept
Matagalpa
1 : 0
UNAN-Managua
30 Aug
Matagalpa
0 : 1
Rancho Santana
23 Aug
Jalapa
0 : 1
Matagalpa
16 Aug
Matagalpa
1 : 0
San Marcos
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Esteli 18 15 1 2 42:17 46
2 Managua FC 18 11 3 4 31:14 36
3 Diriangen 18 11 2 5 34:21 35
4 Walter Ferreti 18 6 5 7 19:17 23
5 Sport Sebaco 18 6 5 7 19:23 23
6 Matagalpa 18 5 6 7 25:30 21
7 UNAN-Managua 18 5 5 8 20:28 20
8 Jalapa 18 4 6 8 18:25 18
9 Rancho Santana 18 3 6 9 15:26 15
10 Ocotal 18 3 3 12 18:40 12
Promotion - Liga Primera 2024/2025 (Clausura - Winners)
Promotion - Liga Primera 2024/2025 (Clausura - Winners)