Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Ogre United vs Augsdaugavas

Latvia Latvia

Nakotnes liga 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

33'
Sub
Lemonjava G. In: Vinokurovs A.
Out: Lemonjava G.
41' Event
Mashchenko V.
Assist: Kalnins M.
46'
Sub
Sprukulis K. In: Hvoinickis D.
Out: Sprukulis K.

AI Match Summary

Ogre United in this Nakotnes liga 2025 matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Ogre United.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Ogre United
20%
Draws
40%
Augsdaugavas
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Ogre United lately — more wins on the board than Augsdaugavas.
  • Ogre United are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Nakotnes liga 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Ogre United have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Ogre United Clean Sheet 68%
Augsdaugavas Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ogre United Augsdaugavas
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 6 4
Draws 5 5
Losses 20 21
Goals Scored 1.26 0.8
Goals Conceded 2.48 2.23
Expected Goals (xG) 1.10 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 14, 2025 1. Liga
Ogre United vs Augsdaugavas
3:0
May 3, 2025 1. Liga
Augsdaugavas vs Ogre United
0:3
May 8, 2022 Latvian Cup
Augsdaugavas vs Ogre United
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ogre United Compare

Top Goalscorer Mashchenko V.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Stepanovs V.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.55

Augsdaugavas Compare

Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ogre United 95 / 100
Augsdaugavas 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ogre United Augsdaugavas

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ogre United Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Augsdaugavas has conceded goals in 93% of their last 30 outings.

Ogre United's goal record stands at 74% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Augsdaugavas's recent record shows 4 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Ogre United VS -
1 Goals Scored 0
2.75 Goals Conceded 0
100% Over 1.5 0%
63% Over 2.5 0%
63% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Ogre United

(Home)
16 Sept
FK Auda Riga
1 : 0
Ogre United
11 Sept
Ogre United
2 : 2
FK Liepaja
05 Sept
Tukums 2000
2 : 1
Ogre United
30 Aug
Ogre United
0 : 3
RFS
22 Aug
Ogre United
2 : 3
Jelgava
Page 1 of 7

Augsdaugavas

(Away)
08 Nov
Riga FC 2
4 : 0
Augsdaugavas
01 Nov
Augsdaugavas
0 : 2
Alberts JDFS
25 Oct
RFS 2
2 : 0
Augsdaugavas
18 Oct
Augsdaugavas
1 : 3
FK Smiltene
04 Oct
Riga Mariners
3 : 3
Augsdaugavas
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ogre United 26 18 4 4 66:20 58
2 Alberts JDFS 26 17 7 2 60:24 58
3 Riga Mariners 26 18 4 4 74:34 58
4 JFK Ventspils 26 11 10 5 40:29 43
5 RFS 2 26 11 8 7 46:31 41
6 Skanste 26 11 7 8 36:39 40
7 Leevon PPK 26 10 6 10 40:40 36
8 Marupe 26 10 2 14 30:33 32
9 Rezekne 26 8 7 11 36:57 31
10 FK Smiltene 26 8 4 14 46:48 28
11 Riga FC 2 26 6 6 14 35:43 24
12 Tukums 2000 2 26 7 2 17 37:60 23
13 AFA Olaine 26 6 4 16 39:88 22
14 Augsdaugavas 26 3 5 18 19:58 14
Promotion - Virsliga (Main)
Promotion - Virsliga 2025 (Relegation)