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Ogre United vs Riga FC

Latvia Latvia

Virsliga Ogres pilsētas ģimnāzija, Ogre
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Match Events

14'
Machado F.
17' Event
Badamosi M.
(Penalty)
32' Event
Jurkovskis R.
Assist: Tonisevs M.

AI Match Summary

Riga FC in this Virsliga matchup, with the score ending 1-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored Riga FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

19%
Ogre United
30%
Draws
51%
Riga FC
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Riga FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Riga FC lately — more wins on the board than Ogre United.
  • Win probability leans Riga FC's way, sitting at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 3 times recently and Riga FC have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.6%
Ogre United Clean Sheet 10%
Riga FC Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ogre United Riga FC
Matches Played 29 34
Wins 5 25
Draws 5 7
Losses 19 2
Goals Scored 1.14 2.53
Goals Conceded 2.59 0.91
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 9, 2026 Virsliga
Riga FC vs Ogre United
4:1
Jun 13, 2026 Virsliga
Ogre United vs Riga FC
1:4
Apr 22, 2026 Virsliga
Riga FC vs Ogre United
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ogre United Compare

Top Goalscorer Evelons E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Riga FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Jurkovskis R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Tonisevs M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.76
Avg xA / game 1.08

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ogre United 18 / 100
Riga FC 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ogre United Riga FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Riga FC Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:3
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 4.67 goals per match.

Attacking prowess: Ogre United scored in 72% of their last 29 outings.

Riga FC let in goals in 56% of their last 34 matches.

Ogre United has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Ogre United VS Riga FC
0.88 Goals Scored 2.13
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Ogre United

(Home)
20 Sept
Ogre United
1 : 0
Super Nova
16 Sept
FK Auda Riga
1 : 0
Ogre United
11 Sept
Ogre United
2 : 2
FK Liepaja
05 Sept
Tukums 2000
2 : 1
Ogre United
30 Aug
Ogre United
0 : 3
RFS
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Riga FC

(Away)
03 Oct
Aris Limassol
1 : 2
Riga FC
19 Sept
Jelgava
0 : 1
Riga FC
15 Sept
Super Nova
0 : 1
Riga FC
11 Sept
Riga FC
2 : 2
FK Auda Riga
07 Sept
Riga FC
1 : 1
BFC Daugavpils
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 RFS 30 23 5 2 71:22 74
2 Riga FC 31 22 7 2 86:30 73
3 FK Auda Riga 31 18 7 6 49:30 61
4 FK Liepaja 31 12 7 12 41:43 43
5 BFC Daugavpils 31 10 9 12 35:35 39
6 Super Nova 30 10 5 15 29:40 35
7 Jelgava 31 8 8 15 32:49 32
8 Grobina 31 5 11 15 21:52 26
9 Tukums 2000 31 5 9 17 44:61 24
10 Ogre United 31 4 6 21 30:76 18
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation - 1. Liga 2027 (Main)