Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Ogre United vs Tukums 2000

Latvia Latvia

Virsliga Ogres pilsētas ģimnāzija, Ogre
Our Tip

Match Events

1' Event
Cudars K.
Assist: Lormanis M.
20' Event
Deruzinskis R.
Assist: Derkach M.
31' Event
Deruzinskis R.
Assist: Anmanis Kaspars

AI Match Summary

Ogre United in this Virsliga matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Ogre United.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Ogre United
20%
Draws
40%
Tukums 2000
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Tukums 2000 average 1.43 goals a game right now, well clear of Ogre United's 1.13.
  • Ogre United are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • Regular Virsliga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 83%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 83%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 81%
Ogre United Clean Sheet 10%
Tukums 2000 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ogre United Tukums 2000
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 5 5
Draws 5 8
Losses 20 17
Goals Scored 1.13 1.43
Goals Conceded 2.57 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 5, 2026 Virsliga
Tukums 2000 vs Ogre United
2:1
Jun 26, 2026 Virsliga
Ogre United vs Tukums 2000
3:2
May 7, 2026 Virsliga
Tukums 2000 vs Ogre United
6:1
Mar 15, 2026 Virsliga
Ogre United vs Tukums 2000
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ogre United Compare

Top Goalscorer Cudars K.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Machado F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Tukums 2000 Compare

Top Goalscorer Deruzinskis R.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ogre United 47 / 100
Tukums 2000 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ogre United Tukums 2000

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ogre United Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tukums 2000 has conceded goals in 97% of their last 30 outings.

Games between these two average 4.25 goals.

Ogre United found the back of the net in 73% of recent matches (30 games).

Difficult form: Tukums 2000 registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Ogre United VS Tukums 2000
1.38 Goals Scored 0.88
2.88 Goals Conceded 2.13
100% Over 1.5 88%
100% Over 2.5 75%
75% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Ogre United

(Home)
20 Sept
Ogre United
1 : 0
Super Nova
16 Sept
FK Auda Riga
1 : 0
Ogre United
11 Sept
Ogre United
2 : 2
FK Liepaja
05 Sept
Tukums 2000
2 : 1
Ogre United
30 Aug
Ogre United
0 : 3
RFS
Page 1 of 6

Tukums 2000

(Away)
20 Sept
Tukums 2000
1 : 1
Grobina
10 Sept
Super Nova
1 : 0
Tukums 2000
05 Sept
Tukums 2000
2 : 1
Ogre United
29 Aug
Tukums 2000
1 : 4
Jelgava
21 Aug
FK Auda Riga
3 : 0
Tukums 2000
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 RFS 30 23 5 2 71:22 74
2 Riga FC 31 22 7 2 86:30 73
3 FK Auda Riga 31 18 7 6 49:30 61
4 FK Liepaja 31 12 7 12 41:43 43
5 BFC Daugavpils 31 10 9 12 35:35 39
6 Super Nova 30 10 5 15 29:40 35
7 Jelgava 31 8 8 15 32:49 32
8 Grobina 31 5 11 15 21:52 26
9 Tukums 2000 31 5 9 17 44:61 24
10 Ogre United 31 4 6 21 30:76 18
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation - 1. Liga 2027 (Main)