Sport Picks
Match Events
44'
44'
Vasconcelos T.
45'
45'
Vasconcelos T.
56'
56'
Heberth
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 4-0. This leg finished 4-0.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
29%
20%
51%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Duque de Caxias
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
20%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to Duque de Caxias lately — more wins on the board than Olaria.
- Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
- Duque de Caxias arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Olaria, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 21%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 63.4%
Olaria Clean Sheet 20%
Duque de Caxias Clean Sheet 11%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Olaria | Duque de Caxias |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 29 |
| Wins | 9 | 12 |
| Draws | 11 | 6 |
| Losses | 10 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1 | 0.93 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.83 | 1.07 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.27 | 1.01 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jun 23, 2026 Copa Rio
Olaria vs Duque de Caxias
4:0
Jun 17, 2026 Copa Rio
Duque de Caxias vs Olaria
0:2
May 31, 2025 Carioca 2
Duque de Caxias vs Olaria
3:2
Aug 11, 2024 Carioca 2
Olaria vs Duque de Caxias
1:0
Aug 3, 2024 Carioca 2
Duque de Caxias vs Olaria
0:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Olaria Compare
Top Goalscorer Vasconcelos T.
2 Goals Assists Leader Heberth
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.98
Avg xA / game 0.64
Duque de Caxias Compare
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.56
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Olaria 32 / 100
Duque de Caxias 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Olaria Duque de Caxias
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Olaria's goal record stands at 60% scoring rate across 30 recent games.
Games between these two average 2.40 goals.
Olaria went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Duque de Caxias's defensive record shows goals conceded in 59% of 29 matches.
Scoring Trends
Olaria VS Duque de Caxias
1.25 Goals Scored 1.14
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.29
75% Over 1.5 71%
38% Over 2.5 43%
13% Over 3.5 29%
Recent Form & Match History
Olaria
(Home) 12 Aug
Nova Iguacu
0 : 0 Olaria
05 Aug
Olaria
0 : 1 Nova Iguacu
22 Jul
Bangu
1 : 1 Olaria
15 Jul
Olaria
2 : 0 Bangu
04 Jul
Olaria
0 : 1 Bonsucesso
Page 1 of 6
05 Aug
Olaria
0 : 1 Nova Iguacu
15 Jul
Olaria
2 : 0 Bangu
04 Jul
Olaria
0 : 1 Bonsucesso
23 Jun
Olaria
4 : 0 Duque de Caxias
20 Jun
Olaria
1 : 0 Cabofriense
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Duque de Caxias
(Away) 26 Sept
Duque de Caxias
0 : 2 Niteroiense
19 Sept
Sao Cristovao
0 : 1 Duque de Caxias
11 Sept
AA Carapebus
1 : 4 Duque de Caxias
05 Sept
Duque de Caxias
3 : 0 Nova Cidade
23 Jun
Olaria
4 : 0 Duque de Caxias
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19 Sept
Sao Cristovao
0 : 1 Duque de Caxias
11 Sept
AA Carapebus
1 : 4 Duque de Caxias
23 Jun
Olaria
4 : 0 Duque de Caxias
22 Nov
Bonsucesso
2 : 0 Duque de Caxias
08 Nov
AA Carapebus
0 : 2 Duque de Caxias
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Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/16-finals
Americano 2
Macae 1
TBD -
Portuguesa RJ -
Cabofriense 1
Bonsucesso 3
TBD -
Madureira -
Perolas Negras 10
Santa Cruz RJ 1
TBD -
Marica -
CEAC/Araruama 2
Sao Cristovao 1
TBD -
Boavista -
Olaria 6
Duque de Caxias 0
TBD -
Bangu -
America RJ -
Goytacaz -
TBD -
Nova Iguacu -
Sao Goncalo 3
Serrano FC 2
TBD -
Volta Redonda -
Resende 11
Belford Roxo 2
TBD -
Sampaio Correa FE -
1/8-finals
Americano 1
Portuguesa RJ 2
Bonsucesso 3
Madureira 4
Perolas Negras 0
Marica 3
CEAC/Araruama 0
Boavista 5
Olaria 3
Bangu 1
America RJ 1
Nova Iguacu 2
Sao Goncalo 2
Volta Redonda 1
Resende 0
Sampaio Correa FE 3
Quarter-finals
Portuguesa RJ 1
Madureira 2
Marica 1
Boavista 3
Olaria 0
Nova Iguacu 1
Sao Goncalo 0
Sampaio Correa FE 1
Semi-finals
Madureira 0
Boavista 2
Nova Iguacu 3
Sampaio Correa FE 2
Final
Boavista 3
Nova Iguacu 1
Madureira 1
Sampaio Correa FE 3
