Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Olbia vs Nocerina

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group G 2025/2026 Bruno Nespoli, Olbia
Our Tip

Match Events

17' Event
Deiana Testoni G.
(Penalty)
22' Event
Simeri S.
(Penalty)
24' Event
Opoola M.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group G 2025/2026 game between Olbia and Nocerina finished 2-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Nocerina.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Olbia
20%
Draws
47%
Nocerina
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Nocerina

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Nocerina carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Nocerina a 47% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Serie D - Group G 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Olbia Clean Sheet 16%
Nocerina Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Olbia Nocerina
Matches Played 30 33
Wins 6 11
Draws 12 13
Losses 12 9
Goals Scored 1.1 1.12
Goals Conceded 1.57 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.21 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 1, 2026 Serie D - Group G
Olbia vs Nocerina
2:3
Sep 28, 2025 Serie D - Group G
Nocerina vs Olbia
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Olbia Compare

Avg xG / game 0.93
Avg xA / game 0.6

Nocerina Compare

Top Goalscorer Opoola M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Kernezo G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Olbia 28 / 100
Nocerina 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Olbia Nocerina

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Nocerina Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 4.00 goals when they meet.

Olbia's goal record stands at 70% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Nocerina's defensive record shows goals conceded in 64% of 33 matches.

Recent resilience: Olbia stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Olbia VS Nocerina
1.67 Goals Scored 1
2 Goals Conceded 0.75
100% Over 1.5 50%
83% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Olbia

(Home)
10 May
Ischia
2 : 1
Olbia
03 May
Sarrabus Ogliastra
2 : 2
Olbia
26 Apr
Olbia
2 : 1
Anzio Calcio 1924
19 Apr
Olbia
3 : 2
Trastevere Calcio
12 Apr
Scafatese
4 : 1
Olbia
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Nocerina

(Away)
04 Oct
Melfi
0 : 1
Nocerina
27 Sept
Nocerina
3 : 0
Palmese 1914
20 Sept
Bisceglie
3 : 1
Nocerina
16 Sept
Nocerina
3 : 2
Ischia
12 Sept
Manfredonia
2 : 2
Nocerina
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Scafatese 34 27 6 1 75:23 87
2 Trastevere Calcio 34 17 9 8 64:46 60
3 Monastir 34 15 8 11 51:44 53
4 Flaminia 34 13 12 9 53:37 51
5 Albalonga 34 14 8 12 55:55 50
6 Latte Dolce 34 14 6 14 49:49 48
7 Valmontone 34 14 6 14 49:50 48
8 Nocerina 34 11 14 9 36:33 47
9 Sarrabus Ogliastra 34 12 10 12 47:51 46
10 Budoni Calcio 34 12 9 13 33:32 45
11 Palmese 1914 34 11 12 11 41:43 45
12 Atl. Lodigiani 34 11 11 12 43:40 44
13 Ischia 34 12 7 15 36:52 43
14 Anzio Calcio 1924 34 10 11 13 38:43 41
15 Real Monterotondo 34 10 6 18 39:58 36
16 Olbia 34 8 14 12 39:50 36
17 Montespaccato 34 6 12 16 47:58 30
18 Cassino 34 4 9 21 24:55 21
Promotion - Serie D - Group G 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group G 2025/2026 (Play Out)