Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Oldham vs Grimsby

England England

League Two 2025/2026 Boundary Park, Oldham
Our Tip

Match Events

37'
Sub
Kavanagh C. In: Garner J.
Out: Kavanagh C.
46'
Sub
Soonsup-Bell J. In: Cook A.
Out: Soonsup-Bell J.
55'
Sub
Turi G. D. In: Walker J.
Out: Turi G. D.

AI Match Summary

The League Two 2025/2026 game between Oldham and Grimsby finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Oldham.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Oldham
6%
Draws
90%
Grimsby
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Grimsby

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Grimsby's 1.88 goals per match outpaces what Oldham have produced (1.14).
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on Grimsby taking it.
  • Regular League Two 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 89%
Over 1.5 Goals 79.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Oldham Clean Sheet 11%
Grimsby Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Oldham Grimsby
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 13 13
Draws 5 10
Losses 11 6
Goals Scored 1.14 1.88
Goals Conceded 1.71 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.14 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.71 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 14, 2026 League Two
Oldham vs Grimsby
1:0
Dec 26, 2025 League Two
Grimsby vs Oldham
0:0
Apr 24, 2021 League Two
Oldham vs Grimsby
1:2
Dec 29, 2020 League Two
Grimsby vs Oldham
0:0
Apr 25, 2020 League Two
Grimsby vs Oldham
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Oldham Compare

Top Goalscorer Hawkes J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.88
Avg xA / game 0.57

Grimsby Compare

Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Oldham 10 / 100
Grimsby 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Oldham Grimsby

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick GRI Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Oldham's goal record stands at 79% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Grimsby's defensive record shows goals conceded in 59% of 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 0.80 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Oldham remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Oldham VS Grimsby
1.14 Goals Scored 1.88
1.71 Goals Conceded 1
71% Over 1.5 88%
71% Over 2.5 63%
43% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Oldham

(Home)
28 Jul
Oldham
0 : 1
Stockport County
24 Jul
Huddersfield
3 : 1
Oldham
21 Jul
Oldham
1 : 3
Bolton
02 May
Oldham
3 : 0
Accrington
25 Apr
Newport
3 : 2
Oldham
Page 1 of 6

Grimsby

(Away)
29 Jul
Boston United
0 : 0
Grimsby
28 Jul
Grimsby
5 : 1
Lincoln City
25 Jul
Hartlepool
0 : 3
Grimsby
18 Jul
Zorya
1 : 1
Grimsby
11 Jul
Cleethorpes
0 : 0
Grimsby
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Bromley462415771:4687
2Milton Keynes Dons462414886:4586
3Cambridge Utd462216866:3382
4Salford462561561:5181
5Notts County462481474:5280
6Chesterfield462116971:5679
7Grimsby4622121274:5078
8Barnet4621131270:5376
9Swindon462291570:5975
10Oldham4618141460:4468
11Crewe4619101764:5867
12Colchester4618121662:4966
13Walsall4618111756:5665
14Bristol Rovers461952256:6562
15Fleetwood Town4615161557:5861
16Accrington4614112147:5853
17Gillingham4613141953:7253
18Cheltenham4614102253:7952
19Shrewsbury4613102342:6949
20Newport461272748:7743
21Tranmere4610112554:7941
22Crawley Town468162244:6840
23Harrogate461092739:6839
24Barrow46992845:7836
Promotion - League One (Main)
Promotion - League Two 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - National League (Main)