Sport Picks
Oliveirense vs Vitoria Sernache
Portugal
Liga 3 Estadio Carlos Osorio, Oliveira de Azemeis 
Match Events
12'
12'
Tavares J.
Assist: Nagata K.
13'
13'
Silva G.
Assist: Bastos L.
26'
26'
Henrique Cavalcante
Assist: Dias A.
AI Match Summary
The Liga 3 game between Oliveirense and Vitoria Sernache finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Oliveirense.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
51%
15%
34%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Oliveirense
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
51%
/ Medium Confidence
- Vitoria Sernache carry the better recent record into this one.
- 51% — that's where the model lands on Oliveirense taking it.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Oliveirense Clean Sheet 68%
Vitoria Sernache Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Oliveirense | Vitoria Sernache |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 30 |
| Wins | 10 | 13 |
| Draws | 6 | 10 |
| Losses | 15 | 7 |
| Goals Scored | 1.26 | 1.03 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.52 | 0.9 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.63 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 23, 2026 Liga 3
Oliveirense vs Vitoria Sernache
3:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Oliveirense Compare
Top Goalscorer Tavares J.
1 Goals Assists Leader Silva G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81
Vitoria Sernache Compare
Top Goalscorer Henrique Cavalcante
1 Goals Assists Leader Dias A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Oliveirense 68 / 100
Vitoria Sernache 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Oliveirense Vitoria Sernache
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Oliveirense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Historical meetings average 5.00 goals per match.
Oliveirense scored in 65% of their last 31 games.
Recent resilience: Oliveirense stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
Away concern: Vitoria Sernache has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Oliveirense VS Vitoria Sernache
1.75 Goals Scored 1.13
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Oliveirense
(Home) 19 Sept
Oliveirense
1 : 2 Penafiel
12 Sept
Oliveirense
2 : 1 Mafra
06 Sept
Atletico CP
3 : 1 Oliveirense
29 Aug
Oliveirense
4 : 0 Penalva do Castelo
23 Aug
Oliveirense
3 : 2 Vitoria Sernache
Page 1 of 7
19 Sept
Oliveirense
1 : 2 Penafiel
12 Sept
Oliveirense
2 : 1 Mafra
29 Aug
Oliveirense
4 : 0 Penalva do Castelo
23 Aug
Oliveirense
3 : 2 Vitoria Sernache
08 Aug
Oliveirense
0 : 0 Louletano
Page 1 of 4
Vitoria Sernache
(Away) 19 Sept
Vitoria Sernache
2 : 1 Varzim
13 Sept
Caldas SC
2 : 0 Vitoria Sernache
06 Sept
Vitoria Sernache
1 : 3 CF Os Belenenses
30 Aug
GD Os Nazarenos
0 : 3 Vitoria Sernache
23 Aug
Oliveirense
3 : 2 Vitoria Sernache
Page 1 of 6
13 Sept
Caldas SC
2 : 0 Vitoria Sernache
30 Aug
GD Os Nazarenos
0 : 3 Vitoria Sernache
23 Aug
Oliveirense
3 : 2 Vitoria Sernache
08 Aug
Mafra
5 : 0 Vitoria Sernache
10 Jun
Leca
2 : 1 Vitoria Sernache
Page 1 of 4
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paredes | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8:4 | 12 |
| 2 | AD Marco 09 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6:3 | 10 |
| 3 | Varzim | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8:5 | 9 |
| 4 | AD Fafe | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8:4 | 8 |
| 5 | SC Vianense | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6:5 | 8 |
| 6 | Leca | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7:8 | 7 |
| 7 | Vitoria Guimaraes B | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4:5 | 5 |
| 8 | Trofense | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2:7 | 4 |
| 9 | Sao Joao de Ver | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3:6 | 3 |
| 10 | Pacos Ferreira | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5:10 | 2 |
Promotion - Liga 3 (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Liga 3 (Relegation Group)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CF Os Belenenses | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13:2 | 15 |
| 2 | Atletico CP | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8:3 | 10 |
| 3 | Oliveirense | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7:7 | 8 |
| 4 | Mafra | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9:5 | 7 |
| 5 | Louletano | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7:7 | 7 |
| 6 | Caldas SC | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5:5 | 7 |
| 7 | Lusitano GC | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4:5 | 5 |
| 8 | Covilha | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4:6 | 5 |
| 9 | Santarem | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3:10 | 4 |
| 10 | Vitoria Sernache | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3:13 | 1 |
Promotion - Liga 3 (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Liga 3 (Relegation Group)
