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Oltrepo vs AC Leon

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group B 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

26'
41'
90' Event
Prandini A.

AI Match Summary

AC Leon in this Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored AC Leon.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Oltrepo
30%
Draws
35%
AC Leon
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • AC Leon average 1.37 goals a game right now, well clear of Oltrepo's 1.07.
  • Model gives AC Leon a 35% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Oltrepo Clean Sheet 16%
AC Leon Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Oltrepo AC Leon
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 13 13
Draws 5 9
Losses 10 8
Goals Scored 1.07 1.37
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 8, 2026 Serie D - Group B
Oltrepo vs AC Leon
0:1
Oct 5, 2025 Serie D - Group B
AC Leon vs Oltrepo
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Oltrepo Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

AC Leon Compare

Top Goalscorer Prandini A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Oltrepo 19 / 100
AC Leon 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Oltrepo AC Leon

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AC Leon Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Oltrepo's goal record stands at 68% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

AC Leon has conceded goals in 70% of their last 30 outings.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Solid form: Oltrepo remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Oltrepo VS AC Leon
1.13 Goals Scored 1
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Oltrepo

(Home)
27 Sept
Pro Sesto
6 : 1
Oltrepo
20 Sept
Oltrepo
0 : 1
Tropical Coriano
16 Sept
Castellanzese
0 : 1
Oltrepo
06 Sept
Pro Patria
2 : 1
Oltrepo
03 May
Oltrepo
2 : 1
Brusaporto
Page 1 of 6

AC Leon

(Away)
27 Sept
AC Leon
1 : 2
Villa Valle
20 Sept
Rovato Vertovese
2 : 2
AC Leon
16 Sept
AC Leon
1 : 1
Piacenza
12 Sept
Caldiero Terme
1 : 1
AC Leon
06 Sept
AC Leon
2 : 0
Brusaporto
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Folgore Caratese 34 19 11 4 58:27 68
2 USD Casatese 34 16 13 5 49:28 61
3 Chievo 34 18 6 10 52:43 60
4 AC Milan U23 34 16 8 10 62:37 56
5 AC Leon 34 14 11 9 44:34 53
6 Brusaporto 34 15 6 13 41:38 51
7 Oltrepo 34 15 8 11 38:36 50
8 Scanzorosciate 34 11 14 9 41:33 47
9 Villa Valle 34 13 8 13 43:46 47
10 Ciserano-Bergamo 34 11 13 10 33:31 46
11 Caldiero Terme 34 10 15 9 50:40 45
12 Real Calepina 34 11 9 14 42:47 42
13 Castellanzese 34 10 11 13 41:39 41
14 Breno 34 9 11 14 39:51 38
15 Pavia 34 9 10 15 36:47 37
16 Varesina 34 7 15 12 38:44 36
17 Sondrio 34 8 7 19 37:64 31
18 Vogherese 34 2 8 24 21:80 -17
Promotion - Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 (Play Out)