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Omiya Ardija vs Nagano Parceiro

Japan Japan

J2/J3 League NACK5 Stadium Omiya, Saitama
Omiya Ardija Logo

Omiya Ardija

1 - 2
FT
Nagano Parceiro Logo

Nagano Parceiro

Our Tip

Match Events

18'
Ozaki Y.
38'
Kondo T.
44'
Kaua Diniz
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The J2/J3 League game between Omiya Ardija and Nagano Parceiro finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Nagano Parceiro.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Omiya Ardija
35%
Draws
36%
Nagano Parceiro
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Nagano Parceiro

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Omiya Ardija come out ahead of Nagano Parceiro on wins alone.
  • Model gives Omiya Ardija a 36% chance of winning this.
  • Regular J2/J3 League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Omiya Ardija Clean Sheet 20%
Nagano Parceiro Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Omiya Ardija Nagano Parceiro
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 14 11
Draws 5 2
Losses 10 16
Goals Scored 1.93 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.45 1.79
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 17, 2026 J2/J3 League
Omiya Ardija vs Nagano Parceiro
1:2
Feb 28, 2026 J2/J3 League
Nagano Parceiro vs Omiya Ardija
1:2
Sep 11, 2024 J3 League
Nagano Parceiro vs Omiya Ardija
0:0
Jun 1, 2024 J3 League
Omiya Ardija vs Nagano Parceiro
4:1
Jun 6, 2018 Emperors Cup
Omiya Ardija vs Nagano Parceiro
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Omiya Ardija Compare

Top Goalscorer Yamamoto O.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91

Nagano Parceiro Compare

Top Goalscorer Fujikawa K.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Higuchi K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Omiya Ardija 36 / 100
Nagano Parceiro 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Omiya Ardija Nagano Parceiro

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Omiya Ardija scored in 93% of their last 29 games.

Nagano Parceiro let in goals in 69% of their last 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Omiya Ardija has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Omiya Ardija VS Nagano Parceiro
1.63 Goals Scored 1
1 Goals Conceded 2
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Omiya Ardija

(Home)
19 Sept
Fujieda MYFC
1 : 1
Omiya Ardija
12 Sept
Omiya Ardija
0 : 0
Oita Trinita
06 Sept
Blaublitz
0 : 0
Omiya Ardija
02 Sept
Gainare Tottori
3 : 1
Omiya Ardija
29 Aug
Omiya Ardija
2 : 2
Shonan Bellmare
Page 1 of 6

Nagano Parceiro

(Away)
20 Sept
Nagano Parceiro
1 : 0
Gifu
13 Sept
Nagano Parceiro
1 : 1
Tochigi SC
09 Sept
Nagano Parceiro
0 : 1
Mito
05 Sept
SC Sagamihara
1 : 1
Nagano Parceiro
30 Aug
Nagano Parceiro
1 : 2
Thespakusatsu Gunma
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vegalta Sendai 18 16 0 2 37:15 43
2 Blaublitz 18 11 0 7 23:16 35
3 Shonan Bellmare 18 11 0 7 28:20 31
4 Yokohama FC 18 10 0 8 36:28 29
5 SC Sagamihara 18 9 0 9 33:36 28
6 Thespakusatsu Gunma 18 7 0 11 27:39 23
7 Montedio Yamagata 18 8 0 10 22:25 22
8 Tochigi City 18 7 0 11 22:35 21
9 Vanraure 17 5 0 12 16:23 18
10 Tochigi SC 17 5 0 12 24:31 17
Promotion - J2/J3 League (Play Offs)
Promotion - J2/J3 League (Placement Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Kofu 17 11 0 6 20:12 33
2 Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo 18 11 0 7 28:22 31
3 Iwaki 18 11 0 7 26:20 31
4 Omiya Ardija 18 10 0 8 39:29 30
5 Fujieda MYFC 18 9 0 9 24:23 30
6 Gifu 17 9 0 8 23:25 27
7 Matsumoto Yamaga 18 8 0 10 33:25 26
8 Iwata 18 9 0 9 20:25 25
9 Fukushima United 18 6 0 12 30:43 18
10 Nagano Parceiro 18 5 0 13 17:36 16
Promotion - J2/J3 League (Play Offs)
Promotion - J2/J3 League (Placement Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Toyama 18 13 0 5 40:26 38
2 Albirex Niigata 18 12 0 6 24:19 35
3 Tokushima 18 11 0 7 38:23 32
4 Kochi United 18 10 0 8 25:23 30
5 Ehime 18 9 0 9 26:20 28
6 Kanazawa 18 10 0 8 20:23 27
7 Nara Club 18 7 0 11 27:36 21
8 FC Osaka 18 6 0 12 18:23 20
9 Imabari 18 6 0 12 15:21 20
10 Kamatamare Sanuki 18 6 0 12 15:34 19
Promotion - J2/J3 League (Play Offs)
Promotion - J2/J3 League (Placement Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tegevajaro Miyazaki 18 15 0 3 35:13 47
2 Kagoshima United 18 12 0 6 27:16 33
3 Sagan Tosu 18 10 0 8 26:18 32
4 Renofa Yamaguchi 18 10 0 8 27:24 29
5 Kumamoto 18 9 0 9 21:21 27
6 Gainare Tottori 18 10 0 8 24:25 27
7 Oita Trinita 18 7 0 11 19:20 22
8 Reilac Shiga 18 7 0 11 16:29 21
9 Ryukyu 18 6 0 12 17:28 17
10 Giravanz Kitakyushu 18 4 0 14 17:35 15
Promotion - J2/J3 League (Play Offs)
Promotion - J2/J3 League (Placement Play Offs)