Sport Picks
Once Caldas vs Deportes Tolima
Colombia
Primera A Estadio Palogrande, Manizales 
Match Events
3'
3'
Sanchez L.
5'
5'
Quinones J.
8'
8'
Moreno D.
Assist: Cuesta Santos J. D.
AI Match Summary
The Primera A game between Once Caldas and Deportes Tolima finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Once Caldas.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
51%
15%
34%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Once Caldas
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
51%
/ Medium Confidence
- Deportes Tolima carry the better recent record into this one.
- 51% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- History favors Deportes Tolima here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Once Caldas Clean Sheet 68%
Deportes Tolima Clean Sheet 14%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Once Caldas | Deportes Tolima |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 35 |
| Wins | 12 | 15 |
| Draws | 10 | 7 |
| Losses | 6 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 1.64 | 1.31 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.11 | 1.17 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.06 | 1.06 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 16, 2026 Primera A
Once Caldas vs Deportes Tolima
1:0
Feb 15, 2026 Primera A
Deportes Tolima vs Once Caldas
2:1
Aug 24, 2025 Primera A
Once Caldas vs Deportes Tolima
0:1
Mar 11, 2025 Primera A
Deportes Tolima vs Once Caldas
2:0
Dec 8, 2024 Primera A
Deportes Tolima vs Once Caldas
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Once Caldas Compare
Top Goalscorer Moreno D.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53
Deportes Tolima Compare
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Once Caldas 41 / 100
Deportes Tolima 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Once Caldas Deportes Tolima
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Once Caldas Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Once Caldas's goal record stands at 86% scoring rate across 28 recent games.
Defensive concern: Deportes Tolima conceded in 71% of 35 recent games.
These sides typically produce 1.60 goals when they meet.
Once Caldas has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Once Caldas VS Deportes Tolima
0.75 Goals Scored 1.13
1 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Once Caldas
(Home) 16 Sept
Once Caldas
1 : 0 Deportes Tolima
13 Sept
Once Caldas
1 : 2 Dep. Cali
10 Sept
Once Caldas
1 : 0 Alianza
05 Sept
Chico
2 : 0 Once Caldas
02 Sept
Fortaleza C.E.I.F.
1 : 2 Once Caldas
Page 1 of 6
16 Sept
Once Caldas
1 : 0 Deportes Tolima
13 Sept
Once Caldas
1 : 2 Dep. Cali
10 Sept
Once Caldas
1 : 0 Alianza
06 Aug
Once Caldas
0 : 1 America De Cali
27 Jul
Once Caldas
5 : 1 Cucuta
Page 1 of 3
Deportes Tolima
(Away) 16 Sept
Once Caldas
1 : 0 Deportes Tolima
12 Sept
Santa Fe
1 : 0 Deportes Tolima
07 Sept
Llaneros
1 : 2 Deportes Tolima
01 Sept
Deportes Tolima
2 : 1 Cucuta
26 Aug
Independiente del Valle
3 : 1 Deportes Tolima
Page 1 of 7
16 Sept
Once Caldas
1 : 0 Deportes Tolima
12 Sept
Santa Fe
1 : 0 Deportes Tolima
07 Sept
Llaneros
1 : 2 Deportes Tolima
26 Aug
Independiente del Valle
3 : 1 Deportes Tolima
01 Aug
Alianza
1 : 2 Deportes Tolima
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | America De Cali | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20:5 | 20 |
| 2 | Atl. Nacional | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 17:6 | 18 |
| 3 | Ind. Medellin | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15:10 | 16 |
| 4 | Millonarios | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 12:8 | 16 |
| 5 | Deportes Tolima | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 12:10 | 16 |
| 6 | Bucaramanga | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 12:8 | 14 |
| 7 | Santa Fe | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 12:9 | 13 |
| 8 | Dep. Cali | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 11:8 | 12 |
| 9 | Once Caldas | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 13:11 | 12 |
| 10 | Aguilas Doradas | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 12:12 | 11 |
| 11 | Llaneros | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11:12 | 11 |
| 12 | Inter Bogotá | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 13:15 | 11 |
| 13 | Cucuta | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9:15 | 9 |
| 14 | Fortaleza C.E.I.F. | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 10:12 | 8 |
| 15 | Alianza | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8:16 | 8 |
| 16 | Chico | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7:15 | 8 |
| 17 | Jaguares de Cordoba | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 9:14 | 7 |
| 18 | Dep. Pereira | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6:11 | 7 |
| 19 | Dep. Pasto | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 8:15 | 5 |
| 20 | Junior | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8:13 | 3 |
Promotion - Primera A (Clausura - Quadrangular)
