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Onehunga vs Ngaruawahia AFC

New Zealand New Zealand

Chatham Cup 2013
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

This match ends 4-0, with Onehunga advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
Onehunga
15%
Draws
0%
Ngaruawahia AFC
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Onehunga

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Onehunga come out ahead of Ngaruawahia AFC on wins alone.
  • Onehunga are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Onehunga have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Onehunga, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 86%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 86%
Over 3.5 Goals 69%
Over 4.5 Goals 31%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Onehunga Clean Sheet 19%
Ngaruawahia AFC Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Onehunga Ngaruawahia AFC
Matches Played 14 3
Wins 10 0
Draws 0 0
Losses 4 3
Goals Scored 2.21 1
Goals Conceded 1.86 4
Expected Goals (xG) 2.94 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 29, 2013 Chatham Cup
Onehunga vs Ngaruawahia AFC
4:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Onehunga 85 / 100
Ngaruawahia AFC 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Onehunga Ngaruawahia AFC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Onehunga Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Onehunga scored in 86% of their last 14 games.

Ngaruawahia AFC's defensive record shows goals conceded in 100% of 3 matches.

These sides typically produce 4.00 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Onehunga stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Onehunga VS Ngaruawahia AFC
1.88 Goals Scored 1
1.5 Goals Conceded 4
88% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 100%
38% Over 3.5 100%

Recent Form & Match History

Onehunga

(Home)
25 Aug
Napier City
2 : 1
Onehunga
03 Aug
Onehunga
5 : 4
Wellington Olympic
06 Jul
Onehunga
2 : 0
North Shore
04 Aug
Onehunga
1 : 4
Western Suburbs
14 Jul
Melville
1 : 3
Onehunga
Page 1 of 3

Ngaruawahia AFC

(Away)
09 Jul
Hamilton
3 : 2
Ngaruawahia AFC
10 Jul
Hamilton
5 : 1
Ngaruawahia AFC
29 Jun
Onehunga
4 : 0
Ngaruawahia AFC

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Palmerston North Marist 2
Napier City 1
Cashmere Technical 7
Waimakariri United 0
Wellington Olympic 4
Lower Hutt City 2
Roslyn Wakari 1
Caversham 4
Manurewa 0
Melville 1
Birkenhead 3
Hamilton 1
Waitakere City 3
Bay Olympic 1
Onehunga 4
Ngaruawahia AFC 0
Quarter-finals
Palmerston North Marist 0
Cashmere Technical 1
Wellington Olympic 3
Caversham 2
Melville 3
Birkenhead 2
Waitakere City 7
Onehunga 0
Semi-finals
Cashmere Technical 4
Wellington Olympic 0
Melville 1
Waitakere City 4
Final
Cashmere Technical 3
Waitakere City 1