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Operario MS vs Novoperario

Brazil Brazil

Sul-Matogrossense 2023
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Match Events

6' Event
19' Event
27' Event

AI Match Summary

This match ends 4-1, with Operario MS advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%
Operario MS
20%
Draws
36%
Novoperario
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Operario MS

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

44% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Operario MS come out ahead of Novoperario on wins alone.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Operario MS have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Operario MS, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Operario MS have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Operario MS Clean Sheet 18%
Novoperario Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Operario MS Novoperario
Matches Played 44 29
Wins 23 6
Draws 11 6
Losses 10 17
Goals Scored 1.68 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.02 2.24
Expected Goals (xG) 1.35 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 2, 2023 Sul-Matogrossense
Operario MS vs Novoperario
4:1
Mar 25, 2023 Sul-Matogrossense
Novoperario vs Operario MS
2:0
Apr 15, 2021 Sul-Matogrossense
Operario MS vs Novoperario
3:0
Mar 29, 2021 Sul-Matogrossense
Novoperario vs Operario MS
1:8
Feb 17, 2019 Sul-Matogrossense
Novoperario vs Operario MS
0:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Operario MS 31 / 100
Novoperario 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Operario MS Novoperario

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Operario MS Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Novoperario's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 29 matches.

Games between these two average 4.20 goals.

Operario MS's goal record stands at 77% scoring rate across 44 recent games.

Solid form: Operario MS remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Operario MS VS -
1.5 Goals Scored 0
1.63 Goals Conceded 0
88% Over 1.5 0%
75% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Operario MS

(Home)
14 Jun
Betim FC
2 : 1
Operario MS
31 May
Operario MS
2 : 0
CRAC
23 May
ABECAT Ouvidorense
2 : 0
Operario MS
16 May
Operario MS
2 : 0
Ivinhema
09 May
Operario MS
1 : 2
Uberlandia
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Novoperario

(Away)
02 Mar
Novoperario
0 : 0
Dourados
24 Feb
Aquidauanense
2 : 0
Novoperario
21 Feb
Novoperario
1 : 1
Corumbaense
17 Feb
Novoperario
3 : 2
Ivinhema
04 Feb
Dourados
2 : 1
Novoperario
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Novoperario 3
Operario MS 4
Coxim 0
Dourados 8
Chapadao 4
Ivinhema 5
Aquidauanense 1
Costa Rica 2
Semi-finals
Operario MS 2
Dourados 1
Ivinhema 1
Costa Rica 1
Final
Operario MS 1
Costa Rica 1