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Operario MS vs Pantanal - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Sul-Matogrossense 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

37' Event
Tassio
45' Event
Leo Itaperuna
50' Event
Rafinha

AI Match Summary

The Sul-Matogrossense 2025 game between Operario MS and Pantanal finished 1-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Pantanal.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Operario MS
20%
Draws
20%
Pantanal
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Operario MS

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

60% / High Confidence
  • Pantanal haven't matched Operario MS's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Operario MS a 60% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Operario MS Clean Sheet 18%
Pantanal Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Operario MS Pantanal
Matches Played 53 31
Wins 28 10
Draws 15 12
Losses 10 9
Goals Scored 1.53 1.39
Goals Conceded 1.02 1.29
Expected Goals (xG) 1.35 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 18, 2026 Sul-Matogrossense
Operario MS vs Pantanal
3:0
Mar 22, 2025 Sul-Matogrossense
Pantanal vs Operario MS
1:2
Mar 16, 2025 Sul-Matogrossense
Operario MS vs Pantanal
2:2
Mar 2, 2025 Sul-Matogrossense
Operario MS vs Pantanal
1:4
Apr 7, 2024 Sul-Matogrossense
Operario MS vs Pantanal
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Operario MS Compare

Top Goalscorer Rafinha
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.04
Avg xA / game 0.68

Pantanal Compare

Top Goalscorer Tassio
1 Goals
Assists Leader Leo Itaperuna
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Operario MS 58 / 100
Pantanal 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Operario MS Pantanal

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Operario MS Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Operario MS scored in 81% of their last 53 games.

Pantanal has conceded goals in 77% of their last 31 outings.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Pantanal's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Operario MS VS -
1.5 Goals Scored 0
1.63 Goals Conceded 0
88% Over 1.5 0%
75% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Operario MS

(Home)
14 Jun
Betim FC
2 : 1
Operario MS
31 May
Operario MS
2 : 0
CRAC
23 May
ABECAT Ouvidorense
2 : 0
Operario MS
16 May
Operario MS
2 : 0
Ivinhema
09 May
Operario MS
1 : 2
Uberlandia
Page 1 of 11

Pantanal

(Away)
01 Mar
Pantanal
2 : 2
Ivinhema
22 Feb
Clube de Regatas Aquidauana
2 : 0
Pantanal
18 Feb
Ji-Parana
2 : 0
Pantanal
11 Feb
Bataguassu
1 : 1
Pantanal
07 Feb
Pantanal
2 : 3
Naviraiense
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ivinhema 9 6 1 2 21:7 19
2 Pantanal 9 5 3 1 17:7 18
3 Dourados 9 5 3 1 17:7 18
4 Operario MS 9 5 1 3 11:12 16
5 Costa Rica 9 3 5 1 14:10 14
6 Aguia Negra 9 3 2 4 14:14 11
7 Naviraiense 9 2 3 4 11:14 9
8 Corumbaense 9 2 2 5 8:14 8
9 Coxim 9 2 1 6 7:18 7
10 Aquidauanense 9 1 1 7 12:29 4
Promotion - Sul-Matogrossense 2025 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Sul-Matogrossense 2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Sul-Matogrossense 2 (Main)