Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Operario vs Lagoa

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Da Costa Benevides R.
39' Event
Teixeira J.
Own Goal
74' Event
Celsinho

AI Match Summary

Operario in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Operario.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
Operario
15%
Draws
85%
Lagoa
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Lagoa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Lagoa have won more games recently than Operario.
  • Lagoa are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Operario Clean Sheet 17%
Lagoa Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Operario Lagoa
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 7 12
Draws 5 8
Losses 18 10
Goals Scored 0.8 1.57
Goals Conceded 1.7 1.23
Expected Goals (xG) 1.17 1.43
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 19, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Operario vs Lagoa
2:1
Oct 13, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Lagoa vs Operario
0:0
Mar 27, 2011 Second Division - Zona Sul
Lagoa vs Operario
2:1
Dec 5, 2010 Second Division - Zona Sul
Operario vs Lagoa
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Operario Compare

Top Goalscorer Da Costa Benevides R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.9
Avg xA / game 0.58

Lagoa Compare

Top Goalscorer Celsinho
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.79

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Operario 10 / 100
Lagoa 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Operario Lagoa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lagoa Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Lagoa conceded in 77% of 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.75 goals as a typical output.

Attacking prowess: Operario scored in 47% of their last 30 outings.

Lagoa's recent record shows 2 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

- VS Lagoa
0 Goals Scored 1.75
0 Goals Conceded 1.13
0% Over 1.5 88%
0% Over 2.5 75%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Operario

(Home)
21 Sept
Louletano
5 : 0
Operario
13 Apr
Operario
2 : 4
Sintrense
06 Apr
Louletano
1 : 0
Operario
29 Mar
Operario
0 : 2
Industria
16 Mar
Moncarapachense
3 : 1
Operario
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Lagoa

(Away)
06 Sept
Santa Clara B
1 : 2
Lagoa
23 Aug
Imortal
1 : 0
Lagoa
16 Aug
Aljustrelense
1 : 1
Lagoa
18 Apr
Lagoa
1 : 2
GD Alcochetense
12 Apr
Portimonense B
1 : 3
Lagoa
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Lusitano GC 26 18 4 4 57:14 58
2 Amora 26 17 6 3 41:19 57
3 Sintrense 26 16 4 6 39:26 52
4 Moncarapachense 26 15 6 5 39:19 51
5 Louletano 26 15 5 6 44:20 50
6 Serpa 26 13 6 7 42:27 45
7 Estrela da Amadora B 26 7 9 10 35:31 30
8 Lagoa 26 7 9 10 26:35 30
9 Industria 26 8 5 13 35:42 29
10 Fabril do Barreiro 26 6 9 11 21:32 27
11 Moura AC 26 7 5 14 27:50 26
12 Operario 26 6 5 15 22:43 23
13 FC Barreirense 26 5 7 14 31:47 22
14 Estrela Vendas Novas 26 1 2 23 12:66 5
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2024/2025 (Promotion Group)