Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Oratorio vs Independente AP

Brazil Brazil

Amapaense 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

39' Event
Balao Maraba
84' Event
Marreta G.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 2-0, with Oratorio advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

9%
Oratorio
35%
Draws
56%
Independente AP
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Independente AP

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

56% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Oratorio come out ahead of Independente AP on wins alone.
  • Independente AP are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Oratorio have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Independente AP, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Oratorio Clean Sheet 15%
Independente AP Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Oratorio Independente AP
Matches Played 39 34
Wins 16 15
Draws 6 11
Losses 17 8
Goals Scored 1.46 1.59
Goals Conceded 1.56 1.09
Expected Goals (xG) 1.74 1.52
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 21, 2026 Amapaense
Independente AP vs Oratorio
3:0
May 3, 2025 Amapaense
Independente AP vs Oratorio
2:0
Apr 26, 2025 Amapaense
Oratorio vs Independente AP
2:0
Mar 23, 2025 Amapaense
Oratorio vs Independente AP
0:2
Jul 9, 2024 Amapaense
Independente AP vs Oratorio
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Oratorio Compare

Top Goalscorer Balao Maraba
1 Goals
Assists Leader Marreta G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.34
Avg xA / game 0.87

Independente AP Compare

Avg xG / game 1.38
Avg xA / game 0.84

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Oratorio 10 / 100
Independente AP 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Oratorio Independente AP

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Independente AP Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Oratorio scored in 77% of their last 39 outings.

Independente AP let in goals in 68% of their last 34 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Solid form: Oratorio remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Oratorio VS Independente AP
1.88 Goals Scored 1.8
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.6
100% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 80%
25% Over 3.5 60%

Recent Form & Match History

Oratorio

(Home)
06 Jun
Tocantinopolis
7 : 1
Oratorio
31 May
Oratorio
0 : 1
Imperatriz
24 May
Oratorio
3 : 3
Tuna Luso
17 May
Trem
4 : 2
Oratorio
10 May
Aguia De Maraba
5 : 1
Oratorio
Page 1 of 8

Independente AP

(Away)
23 Mar
SAO Jose
2 : 2
Independente AP
20 Mar
Independente AP
2 : 2
SAO Jose
17 Mar
Independente AP
1 : 2
SAO Jose
13 Mar
Independente AP
1 : 1
Ypiranga AP
09 Mar
Macapa
1 : 3
Independente AP
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Trem 4
Santos AP 1
Oratorio 2
Independente AP 2
Final
Trem 2
Oratorio 1