Sport Picks
Ordabasy vs Kaspij Aktau
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan Cup Stadion Kazhymukan Munaitpasov, Šymkent 
Match Events
17'
17'
Mitkov D.
34'
34'
Kadyrbaev E.
39'
39'
Aripov D.
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 3-0. The second leg ended 3-0.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
40%
15%
45%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Kaspij Aktau
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
40%
/ High Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Ordabasy come out ahead of Kaspij Aktau on wins alone.
- Win probability leans Ordabasy's way, sitting at 50%.
- Ordabasy have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Ordabasy, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Ordabasy Clean Sheet 20%
Kaspij Aktau Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Ordabasy | Kaspij Aktau |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 28 |
| Wins | 20 | 13 |
| Draws | 7 | 3 |
| Losses | 2 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 2.13 | 1.5 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.88 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.13 | 1.50 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 0.88 | 1.38 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jul 11, 2026 Premier League
Kaspij Aktau vs Ordabasy
3:2
Jun 20, 2026 Premier League
Ordabasy vs Kaspij Aktau
2:0
Apr 30, 2026 Kazakhstan Cup
Ordabasy vs Kaspij Aktau
3:0
Oct 29, 2023 Premier League
Kaspij Aktau vs Ordabasy
1:0
Mar 4, 2023 Premier League
Ordabasy vs Kaspij Aktau
3:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Ordabasy Compare
Top Goalscorer Mitkov D.
3 Goals Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06
Kaspij Aktau Compare
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Ordabasy 49 / 100
Kaspij Aktau 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Ordabasy Kaspij Aktau
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick ORD Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Ordabasy scored in 93% of their last 29 outings.
Kaspij Aktau's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 28 matches.
H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.
Recent resilience: Ordabasy stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Ordabasy VS Kaspij Aktau
2.13 Goals Scored 1.5
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Ordabasy
(Home) 02 Aug
Ordabasy
2 : 0 Tobol
26 Jul
Kairat Almaty
2 : 1 Ordabasy
19 Jul
Ordabasy
3 : 1 Yelimay Semey
15 Jul
Ordabasy
3 : 1 Altai
11 Jul
Kaspij Aktau
3 : 2 Ordabasy
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02 Aug
Ordabasy
2 : 0 Tobol
19 Jul
Ordabasy
3 : 1 Yelimay Semey
15 Jul
Ordabasy
3 : 1 Altai
05 Jul
Ordabasy
1 : 0 Ulytau
20 Jun
Ordabasy
2 : 0 Kaspij Aktau
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Kaspij Aktau
(Away) 01 Aug
Ertis Pavlodar
3 : 2 Kaspij Aktau
26 Jul
Kaspij Aktau
3 : 2 Zhenis
18 Jul
Kaisar Kyzylorda
1 : 1 Kaspij Aktau
11 Jul
Kaspij Aktau
3 : 2 Ordabasy
05 Jul
Atyrau
1 : 2 Kaspij Aktau
Page 1 of 6
01 Aug
Ertis Pavlodar
3 : 2 Kaspij Aktau
18 Jul
Kaisar Kyzylorda
1 : 1 Kaspij Aktau
05 Jul
Atyrau
1 : 2 Kaspij Aktau
20 Jun
Ordabasy
2 : 0 Kaspij Aktau
28 May
Zhenis
1 : 0 Kaspij Aktau
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Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/16-finals
Akademiya Ontustik 2
Ordabasy 4
FC Ekibastuz 0
Kaspij Aktau 4
Jas Qyran 0
Atyrau 4
Karshiga Almaty 0
Zhetysu Taldykorgan 1
Arys 0
Aktobe 4
Turan 1
Yelimay Semey 4
Jelaev Nan 0
Altai 2
Taraz 0
Ulytau 1
Talas 0
Kaisar Kyzylorda 2
Jaiyq 1
Kairat Almaty 3
BKS 1
FC Astana 2
Ansat 0
Tobol 8
Shakhter Karagandy 2
Okzhetpes 3
Chromtau 1
Zhenis 4
SD Family -
Ertis Pavlodar -
Khan Tengri 0
Kyzylzhar 1
1/8-finals
Ordabasy 3
Kaspij Aktau 0
Atyrau 0
Zhetysu Taldykorgan 2
Aktobe 2
Yelimay Semey 1
Altai 4
Ulytau 3
Kaisar Kyzylorda 2
Kairat Almaty 1
FC Astana 1
Tobol 2
Okzhetpes 2
Zhenis 3
Ertis Pavlodar 1
Kyzylzhar 2
Quarter-finals
Ordabasy 1
Zhetysu Taldykorgan 0
Aktobe 1
Altai 2
Kaisar Kyzylorda 2
Tobol 1
Zhenis 2
Kyzylzhar 0
Semi-finals
Ordabasy 3
Altai 1
Kaisar Kyzylorda 3
Zhenis 1
Final
TBD -
TBD -
