Sport Picks
Oriental vs Vitoria Setubal
Portugal
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2023/2024 
Match Events
20'
20'
Carvalho D.
25'
25'
Fernandes Silva D. C.
26'
26'
Fernandes Silva D. C.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2023/2024 matchup, with the score ending 3-3.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
29%
30%
41%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Vitoria Setubal
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
29%
/ Low Confidence
- Vitoria Setubal have won more games recently than Oriental.
- Oriental are the model's pick here, at 40%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 87%
Over 1.5 Goals 77.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Oriental Clean Sheet 68%
Vitoria Setubal Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Oriental | Vitoria Setubal |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 32 | 30 |
| Wins | 9 | 15 |
| Draws | 12 | 6 |
| Losses | 11 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 1.13 | 1.5 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.38 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.40 | 1.30 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 17, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Oriental vs Vitoria Setubal
3:3
Dec 2, 2023 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Vitoria Setubal vs Oriental
2:0
Nov 23, 2014 Taça de Portugal
Oriental vs Vitoria Setubal
1:0
Jan 26, 1975 Liga Portugal
Vitoria Setubal vs Oriental
3:0
Sep 29, 1974 Liga Portugal
Oriental vs Vitoria Setubal
0:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Oriental Compare
Top Goalscorer Fernandes Silva D. C.
2 Goals Assists Leader Machado H.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.7
Vitoria Setubal Compare
Top Goalscorer Carvalho D.
1 Goals Assists Leader Marouca J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.18
Avg xA / game 0.72
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Oriental 50 / 100
Vitoria Setubal 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Oriental Vitoria Setubal
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Oriental Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Oriental's goal record stands at 63% scoring rate across 32 recent games.
H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.
Oriental went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Vitoria Setubal's defensive record shows goals conceded in 57% of 30 matches.
Scoring Trends
Oriental VS Vitoria Setubal
1 Goals Scored 1.6
1 Goals Conceded 1.8
75% Over 1.5 80%
38% Over 2.5 60%
13% Over 3.5 60%
Recent Form & Match History
Oriental
(Home) 18 Apr
Oriental
2 : 1 Serpa
12 Apr
GD Alcochetense
1 : 1 Oriental
04 Apr
Oriental
0 : 2 Lagoa
22 Mar
Oriental
1 : 2 Alverca B
15 Mar
O Elvas CAD
0 : 0 Oriental
Page 1 of 7
18 Apr
Oriental
2 : 1 Serpa
04 Apr
Oriental
0 : 2 Lagoa
22 Mar
Oriental
1 : 2 Alverca B
08 Mar
Oriental
2 : 2 Juv. Evora
22 Feb
Oriental
0 : 0 Sintrense
Page 1 of 4
Vitoria Setubal
(Away) 20 Sept
Alcains
0 : 2 Vitoria Setubal
13 Sept
Vitoria Setubal
2 : 2 Juv. Evora
06 Sept
Lajense
0 : 1 Vitoria Setubal
23 Aug
Vitoria Setubal
1 : 3 Amora
16 Aug
Serpa
4 : 2 Vitoria Setubal
Page 1 of 6
20 Sept
Alcains
0 : 2 Vitoria Setubal
06 Sept
Lajense
0 : 1 Vitoria Setubal
16 Aug
Serpa
4 : 2 Vitoria Setubal
01 Jun
SC Lusitania
2 : 1 Vitoria Setubal
19 May
Santarem
0 : 0 Vitoria Setubal
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vitoria Setubal | 26 | 16 | 5 | 5 | 45:21 | 53 |
| 2 | Moncarapachense | 26 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 29:17 | 49 |
| 3 | Lusitano GC | 26 | 11 | 13 | 2 | 28:9 | 46 |
| 4 | Louletano | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 37:26 | 41 |
| 5 | Sintrense | 26 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 29:26 | 40 |
| 6 | O Elvas CAD | 26 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 34:27 | 39 |
| 7 | FC Barreirense | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 31:25 | 39 |
| 8 | Fabril do Barreiro | 26 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 29:24 | 34 |
| 9 | Serpa | 26 | 10 | 4 | 12 | 27:30 | 34 |
| 10 | Juv. Evora | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 26:25 | 32 |
| 11 | Vasco da Gama Vidigueira | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 26:45 | 30 |
| 12 | Oriental | 26 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 31:48 | 29 |
| 13 | Real SC | 26 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 24:46 | 14 |
| 14 | Imortal | 26 | 2 | 7 | 17 | 19:46 | 13 |
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Promotion Group 2023/2024 (Main)
