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Orihuela vs Las Palmas B

Spain Spain

Segunda RFEF - Group 5 2025/2026
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

This looks like a tight matchup. Neither side is clearly dominant, with Orihuela averaging 1.3 xG at home and Las Palmas B producing 1.3 xG on their travels. Las Palmas B will likely drop deep and defend, forcing Orihuela to find a way to break them down. A single goal could decide this. The Under 3.5 goals market offers solid value. Everything points to a very close contest where a draw wouldn't surprise anyone.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Orihuela
28%
Draws
35%
Las Palmas B
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Orihuela

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / Medium Confidence
  • Orihuela picked up more points recently compared to Las Palmas B.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.25 vs 1.25 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 58%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 81%
Over 2.5 Goals 58%
Over 3.5 Goals 35%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 58%
Orihuela Clean Sheet 19%
Las Palmas B Clean Sheet 11%
First Half Goal 73%
Second Half Goal 77%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Orihuela Las Palmas B
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 10 10
Draws 8 9
Losses 12 11
Goals Scored 1.43 1.3
Goals Conceded 1.43 1.3
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40
Possession % 53.5% 46.5%
Shots per Match 13.8 11.2
Shots on Target 4.8 3.6
Corners per Match 5.6 4.4
Yellow/Red Cards 1.8 2.2

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

26.04.26 Segunda RFEF - Group 5
Las Palmas B vs Orihuela
2:1
14.12.25 Segunda RFEF - Group 5
Orihuela vs Las Palmas B
3:2

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

Orihuela

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency A lot of crosses
Defensive Alignment Sit deep
Strengths
  • Dangerous on corners
  • Overlap on the wings
  • Quick counters
Weaknesses
  • Vulnerable to counters
  • Weak in the air

Las Palmas B

Pressing Intensity Passive low block (PPDA > 14)
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle
Defensive Alignment Sit deep
Strengths
  • Quick recovery
  • Solid midfield screen
  • Quick counters
Weaknesses
  • Fouling under pressure
  • Defending set pieces

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Orihuela Compare

Top Goalscorer Key Forward
8 Goals
Assists Leader Midfield Maestro
6 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.77

Las Palmas B Compare

Top Goalscorer Key Forward
9 Goals
Assists Leader Midfield Maestro
7 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.91

Availability Alerts

Key Defender Las Palmas B • Hamstring Injury
Out Rating: 8.5
Starting Midfielder Orihuela • Ankle Sprain
Doubtful Rating: 6.8
Backup Goalkeeper Las Palmas B • Muscle strain
Out Rating: 3.2
Star Striker Orihuela • Returning to training
Returning Rating: 9.4

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Orihuela 37 / 100
Las Palmas B 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Orihuela Las Palmas B

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Orihuela or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +27.6%
3.45
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11.4%
1.92
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

Orihuela will likely press early to force mistakes.

Orihuela 59%
Las Palmas B 37%
15' - 30' Dominance Index

Las Palmas B should settle down and try to slow the pace.

Orihuela 54%
Las Palmas B 44%
30' - 45' Dominance Index

Both sides will look to break quickly before the half-time whistle.

Orihuela 51%
Las Palmas B 49%
45' - 60' Dominance Index

Tactical adjustments will show. Expect Orihuela to push more players wide.

Orihuela 56%
Las Palmas B 44%
60' - 75' Dominance Index

Players will tire. Fresh legs from the bench will spark quicker counter-attacks.

Orihuela 51%
Las Palmas B 49%
75' - 90' Dominance Index

Late drama. Teams will take major risks depending on the scoreline.

Orihuela 62%
Las Palmas B 53%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Orihuela attacking → ← attacking Las Palmas B

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Orihuela have scored in 91% of their home games in the past 12 months.

Las Palmas B concede most goals (49%) in the final 15 minutes of matches.

Meetings between these sides average 26 shots per game, well above the league median.

Orihuela are unbeaten in 5 straight matches when scoring first.

Las Palmas B have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 5 matches.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Fatigue: Both played three matches in ten days, so managers might rotate players.

Risk Factor

Incentive: Orihuela wants a European spot, while Las Palmas B is battling relegation.

Risk Factor

Cards: Historically tense game, a red card could change the whole setup.

Public Accuracy Dashboard

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Overall Accuracy 78.4%
BTTS Accuracy 73.1%
Over 2.5 Accuracy 75.6%
Correct Score Accuracy 18.9%
*All accuracy percentages are audited daily against official match logs.

Recent Predictions Log

Date Prediction Result Status
2026-07-05 Over 2.5 Goals 1-0 Lost
2026-07-01 Home Win (1) 2-0 Won
2026-06-27 Over 2.5 Goals 3-1 Won
2026-06-23 Home Win (1) 1-1 Lost
2026-06-19 Over 2.5 Goals 3-1 Won
2026-06-15 Home Win (1) 2-0 Won
2026-06-11 Over 2.5 Goals 1-0 Lost
2026-06-07 Home Win (1) 2-0 Won

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

38 Points in last 5 39
1.25 Goals expected (xG) 1.25
1.10 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.40
53.5% Ball possession % 46.5%
13.8 Shots per game 11.2
4.8 Shots on target 3.6
5.6 Corners per game 4.4
1.8 Cards per game 2.2