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Orsha vs Naftan

Belarus Belarus

Belarusian Cup Central City Stadium
Sun, Jul 19, 2026
VS
01:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Orsha host Naftan in the Belarusian Cup. History leans heavily one way in this fixture. Naftan have shipped 2.38 goals a game lately, while Orsha have conceded 1.75 and scored 1.38. Head-to-head, Orsha have won 1 to Naftan's 4, with 0 draws. They last met on Feb 14, 2026, ending 3:0. The numbers (1.88 xG vs 1.25) point toward Naftan. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Orsha
39%
Draws
31%
Naftan
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Orsha lately — more wins on the board than Naftan.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Knockout football tends to sharpen focus — no second leg to fall back on.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Naftan have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Orsha Clean Sheet 19%
Naftan Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Orsha Naftan
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 7 5
Draws 3 6
Losses 19 18
Goals Scored 1.38 0.75
Goals Conceded 1.75 2.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 2.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 14, 2026 Club Friendly
Naftan vs Orsha
3:0
Feb 20, 2025 Club Friendly
Naftan vs Orsha
2:0
Mar 11, 2023 Club Friendly
Naftan vs Orsha
5:1
Sep 11, 2022 Pershaya Liga
Naftan vs Orsha
5:0
May 7, 2022 Pershaya Liga
Orsha vs Naftan
1:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Orsha 31 / 100
Naftan 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Orsha Naftan

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ORS Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.40 goals as a typical output.

Defensive concern: Naftan conceded in 79% of 29 recent games.

Naftan's recent record shows 4 losses from the last 5 matches.

Orsha's goal record stands at 59% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Orsha VS Naftan
1.38 Goals Scored 0.75
1.75 Goals Conceded 2.38
88% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/32-finals
Shchuchyn3
FK Lida4
TBD-
Zhodino-
Urozhaynaya0
Molodechno3
TBD-
BATE-
Technolog Mogilev0
FC Slonim6
TBD-
Isloch Minsk-
Polotsk0
Uni X Labs2
TBD-
FK Baranovici-
Minskoe More0
SKA-1938 Minsk3
TBD-
ML Vitebsk-
Bobovnya0
BumProm Gomel2
TBD-
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk-
Leskhoz0
Soligorsk3
TBD-
Neman-
Stanles Pinsk1
Krumkachy4
TBD-
Dynamo Brest-
Krechet0
Ostrovets8
TBD-
Vitebsk-
Drut Belynichi0
Orsha7
TBD-
Naftan-
Neman Mosty1
Niva Dolbizno4
TBD-
FC Gomel-
Gazovik Vitebsk1
Volna Pinsk4
TBD-
Slavia Mozyr-
Ivatsevichi1
Slutsk3
TBD-
Din. Minsk-
Vertical Kalinkovichi0
Smorgon7
TBD-
FC Minsk-
Viktoria Maryina Gorka1
Nadezhda Baranovici0
TBD-
Belshina-
BGU Minsk0
Osipovichi2
TBD-
Dnepr Mogilev-
1/16-finals
FK Lida-
Zhodino-
Molodechno1
BATE4
FC Slonim-
Isloch Minsk-
Uni X Labs-
FK Baranovici-
SKA-1938 Minsk3
ML Vitebsk5
BumProm Gomel-
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk-
Soligorsk-
Neman-
Krumkachy-
Dynamo Brest-
Ostrovets-
Vitebsk-
Orsha-
Naftan-
Niva Dolbizno-
FC Gomel-
Volna Pinsk-
Slavia Mozyr-
Slutsk0
Din. Minsk2
Smorgon-
FC Minsk-
Viktoria Maryina Gorka-
Belshina-
Osipovichi0
Dnepr Mogilev0
1/8-finals
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Quarter-finals
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Semi-finals
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Final
TBD-
TBD-