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Os Marialvas vs Fatima - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Milagres J.
86' Event
Silva A.
(Penalty)
90' Event
Jessy D.

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Group C game between Os Marialvas and Fatima finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Os Marialvas.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Os Marialvas
20%
Draws
40%
Fatima
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Os Marialvas come out ahead of Fatima on wins alone.
  • Model gives Fatima a 40% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Os Marialvas Clean Sheet 19%
Fatima Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Os Marialvas Fatima
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 13 10
Draws 7 9
Losses 9 10
Goals Scored 1.31 1.48
Goals Conceded 0.83 1.14
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Os Marialvas vs Fatima
3:0
Mar 22, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Os Marialvas vs Fatima
2:0
Nov 29, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Fatima vs Os Marialvas
2:0
Jan 12, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Fatima vs Os Marialvas
4:0
Aug 18, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Os Marialvas vs Fatima
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Os Marialvas Compare

Top Goalscorer Milagres J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Jessy D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Fatima Compare

Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Os Marialvas 28 / 100
Fatima 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Os Marialvas Fatima

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Fatima Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Os Marialvas scored in 72% of their last 29 outings.

Defensive concern: Fatima conceded in 69% of 29 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Os Marialvas went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Os Marialvas VS Fatima
1.88 Goals Scored 1.88
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Os Marialvas

(Home)
01 Nov
Os Marialvas
2 : 1
Uniao Da Serra
25 Oct
Fazendense
1 : 2
Os Marialvas
16 Oct
Chaves
2 : 1
Os Marialvas
11 Oct
Os Marialvas
0 : 0
Sertanense
20 Sept
UD Ovarense
0 : 1
Os Marialvas
Page 1 of 6

Fatima

(Away)
01 Nov
Fatima
6 : 1
Fazendense
25 Oct
Sertanense
2 : 2
Fatima
18 Oct
Fatima
1 : 0
Academico Viseu
11 Oct
Fatima
1 : 3
GD Os Nazarenos
20 Sept
Fatima
4 : 1
Vinhais
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Os Marialvas 7 5 1 1 12:4 16
2 O Elvas CAD 7 5 1 1 13:6 16
3 Mortagua FC 7 4 2 1 11:5 14
4 Oliveira Hospital 7 4 2 1 13:9 14
5 Uniao Da Serra 7 3 3 1 10:8 12
6 SB Castelo Branco 7 3 1 3 11:14 10
7 Malveira 7 2 3 2 10:11 9
8 Fatima 7 2 2 3 15:11 8
9 Nogueirense 7 1 5 1 11:13 8
10 Naval 1893 7 2 1 4 7:9 7
11 Alverca B 7 2 1 4 10:7 7
12 Sertanense 7 0 5 2 5:9 5
13 GD Os Nazarenos 7 1 2 4 5:12 5
14 Fazendense 7 0 1 6 8:23 1
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Campeonato de Portugal - Relegation Group 2026/2027 (Main)