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Os Marialvas vs Fatima

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
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Match Events

14' Event
87' Event
90' Event

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Group C game between Os Marialvas and Fatima finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Os Marialvas.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

54%
Os Marialvas
15%
Draws
31%
Fatima
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Os Marialvas

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Os Marialvas come out ahead of Fatima on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65%
Os Marialvas Clean Sheet 16%
Fatima Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Os Marialvas Fatima
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 12 10
Draws 7 8
Losses 10 11
Goals Scored 1.24 1.21
Goals Conceded 0.83 1.14
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Os Marialvas vs Fatima
3:0
Mar 22, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Os Marialvas vs Fatima
2:0
Nov 29, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Fatima vs Os Marialvas
2:0
Jan 12, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Fatima vs Os Marialvas
4:0
Aug 18, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Os Marialvas vs Fatima
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Os Marialvas 31 / 100
Fatima 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Os Marialvas Fatima

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Os Marialvas scored in 69% of their last 29 outings.

Defensive concern: Fatima conceded in 66% of 29 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Os Marialvas went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Os Marialvas VS Fatima
1 Goals Scored 2.25
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.25
50% Over 1.5 100%
25% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Os Marialvas

(Home)
13 Sept
GD Os Nazarenos
0 : 3
Os Marialvas
06 Sept
Os Marialvas
3 : 0
Fatima
30 Aug
Fornos de Algodres
0 : 4
Os Marialvas
23 Aug
Os Marialvas
1 : 2
Oliveira Hospital
16 Aug
Malveira
0 : 1
Os Marialvas
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Fatima

(Away)
13 Sept
Fatima
0 : 1
Oliveira Hospital
06 Sept
Os Marialvas
3 : 0
Fatima
29 Aug
Fatima
3 : 1
SB Castelo Branco
23 Aug
Fatima
5 : 0
Malveira
16 Aug
O Elvas CAD
1 : 1
Fatima
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mortagua FC 4 3 1 0 9:4 10
2 Oliveira Hospital 4 3 0 1 6:4 9
3 Os Marialvas 4 3 0 1 8:2 9
4 Uniao Da Serra 4 2 2 0 6:4 8
5 O Elvas CAD 3 2 1 0 4:2 7
6 Naval 1893 4 2 0 2 6:4 6
7 Nogueirense 4 1 3 0 8:7 6
8 SB Castelo Branco 4 2 0 2 7:9 6
9 Fatima 4 1 1 2 6:5 4
10 Malveira 4 1 1 2 4:7 4
11 Sertanense 3 0 2 1 3:5 2
12 Fazendense 3 0 1 2 5:7 1
13 Alverca B 3 0 0 3 1:4 0
14 GD Os Nazarenos 4 0 0 4 1:10 0
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Campeonato de Portugal - Relegation Group 2026/2027 (Main)